World Affairs Brief, December 27, 2019 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).
2019 Big Picture Brief
WWIII with Russia and China:
Russia and China’s military development is the biggest threat the US faces, and experts are clear that Russia and China are ahead of the US in some high tech areas, though not in deployed numbers.
The US has had a big technological advantage in the air and land wars against Serbia, and Iraq. Both nations were equipped with decades-old armor (tanks, etc.), which was no match for the US automated targeting and firing system on the Abrams tanks. In each of those engagements, the Russians held back from directly attacking US military weapons system (except for one case in Iraq where they used a new anti-tank weapon to destroy an Abrams tank). Instead they chose to eavesdrop on all the electronic countermeasures the US used to defeat Saddam Hussein’s Russian-made defensive missiles, so they could develop counter measures.
That is the primary reason the Russians haven’t used their newest S-400 interceptor tracking radars in Syria, to deny the US intelligence about what the Russians have developed. They use them in surveillance mode only. Pepe Escobar, a Brazialian Marxist who is very fluent in English, brags about the latest Russian and Chinese advancements that promise to send some shock and awe to Americans when they finally confront a first rate enemy. Both he and “The Saker” a former US intelligence analyst that is now pro-Russian, quote Andrei Martyanov, the top military analyst familiar with both Russian and US systems. I don’t quote them because I share in their gloating, but that Americans may realize that a war with Russia and China would be very deadly.
Martyanov had already detailed in his splendid, previous book, “Losing Military Supremacy: The Myopia of American Strategic Planning,” how “American lack of historic experience with continental warfare” ended up “planting the seeds of the ultimate destruction of the American military mythology of the 20th and 21st centuries which is foundational to the American decline, due to hubris and detachment of reality.” Throughout the book, he unceasingly provides solid evidence about the kind of lethality waiting for U.S. forces in a possible, future war against real armies (not the Taliban or Saddam Hussein’s), air forces, air defenses and naval power.
First, he mentions the need for any future combatant to have GPS guided munitions so that over-the-horizon attacks can happen with precision:
And there are only two global systems providing satellite guidance to cruise missiles: the American GPS and the Russian GLONASS. Neither China’s BeiDou nor the European Galileo qualify – yet – as global GPS systems.
That is one of the reasons I say China is not ready yet to take on the West. There are things the Russians are lacking too, like a blue water Navy to control countries they conquer or submit to blackmail. China is actually ahead of Russia in new naval vessels. Next he mentions “net centric warfare,” which refers to the combat battle datalink computer systems that link fighters and tanks and troops on the ground with satellites and AWACS and surveillance platforms in the air above.
Martyanov soon tells us that “the era of subsonic anti-shipping missiles is over.” [The West] now has to face the supersonic Russian [supersonic anti-ship missile] P-800 Onyx and the Kalibr-class M54 in a “highly hostile Electronic Warfare environment.” Every developed modern military today applies Net-Centric Warfare (NCW), developed by the Pentagon in the 1990s.
And then there’s the whole field of new hypersonic missiles Russia has developed, which is far ahead of anything the US has deployed. The US has doubling down on hypersonic missiles but is till playing catch-up.
Martyanov provides ample information on Russia’s latest missile – the hypersonic Mach-10 aero-ballistic Kinzhal, recently tested in the Arctic. Crucially, as he explains, “no existing anti-missile defense in the U.S. Navy is capable of shooting [it] down even in the case of the detection of this missile.” Kinzhal has a range of 2,000 km, which leaves its carriers, MiG-31K and TU-22M3M, “invulnerable to the only defense a U.S. Carrier Battle Group, a main pillar of U.S. naval power, can mount – carrier fighter aircraft.” These fighters simply don’t have the range.
This is true. The Russians can launch these missiles from outside the defensive range of US carriers.
Top Pentagon officials such as General John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, have admitted on the record there are “no existing countermeasures” against, for instance, the hypersonic, Mach 27 glide vehicle Avangard (which renders anti-ballistic missile systems useless), telling the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee the only way out would be “a nuclear deterrent.” There are also no existing counter-measures against anti-shipping missiles such as the Zircon and Kinzhal.
Any military analyst knows very well how the Kinzhal destroyed a land target the size of a Toyota Corolla in Syria after being launched 1,000 km away in adverse weather conditions. The corollary is the stuff of NATO nightmares: NATO’s command and control installations in Europe are de facto indefensible.
And it gets worse: “Such weapons ensure a guaranteed retaliation [Martyanov’s italics] on the U.S. proper.” Even the existing Russian nuclear deterrents – and to a lesser degree Chinese, as paraded recently — “are capable of overcoming the existing U.S. anti-ballistic systems and destroying the United States,” no matter what crude propaganda the Pentagon is peddling.
The US is aware of all this bad news and is developing not only a new anti-missile system with a warhead (current missiles have only a kinetic “hit vehicle” which only destroys an incoming warhead if it makes contact—a near impossibility with the new maneuvering warheads), but also a new ballistic missile to replace the aging 400+ Minuteman III missiles (which only have one warhead on them now). But neither of these will be ready until at least 2030—which probably won’t be in time to do any good.
I am still projecting that Russia and China won’t be ready to attack the West until the latter half of the next decade. This is a change from my previous predictions of when Russia and China would be ready (first half of the decade). As in any arms race, it takes longer than expected for our enemies to build arms when the US is building new arms too.
The foregoing partial analysis on Russian and Chinese arms represents the exuberance of a Marxist who is anxious to see the US humbled. Sadly, this attitude is shared by millions worldwide because of US arrogance and intervention around the world—which has given us the rather deserved reputation of the “Bully of the World.”
But it isn’t as bleak for the US as Escobar makes out. The US has secret weapons system in space that are capable of neutralizing ballistic missile threats, that are most vulnerable when in the apogee of their trajectory and before their payload of warheads is launched.
The trouble is, as I have pointed out for years, PDD-60, signed in 1997 and still in force stipulates that our missile forces will be forced by our military leaders to absorb the first strike and retaliate afterward [replacing “launch on first warning” – ed.]—which can only mean that our globalist leaders intend to use that first strike to force the US into accepting a militarized global government to prosecute WWIII.
The globalists would not bind the US down with a suicidal directive like PDD-60 unless they had something up their sleeve to still win the war after absorbing a first strike—which will be against military targets only, not cities per se, except those parts of the cities too close to military installations. [Joel often mentions that the nukes will be preceded by EMP weapons that will take out America’s power for up to a year – ed.]
Our Deep State leaders know the enemy doesn’t want to destroy the US, only blackmail it into submission after that first strike so that the US has to join the communist version of the NWO.
Some of the US’ secret weapons are surely space based interceptors which are kept top secret. They aren’t meant to act as a nuclear deterrent for the first strike, but as a means of stopping any further missile attacks while the West regroups under its militarized global government. And, I believe the emerging EU army is meant to form the core of that militarized global government.
As I covered in last week’s brief, the US has now formed a Space Force and the Secretary of the Air Force and certain generals are lobbying Congress to declassify a lot of the secret space programs the US has been spending trillions on—in black budget money created off budget.
Even if some aspects of the space program are declassified to gain public support for space weapons, Gen Kwast is making the rounds talking to the public about how the Chinese and Russians are busy building weapons platforms in space as well—which is the new frontier of combat. The mysterious Air Force X-37B space plane may well be a prototype for a maneuvering space weapons platform to target enemy space craft. Unlike Star Wars depictions, almost all of these will be unmanned, and that is why research into artificial intelligence is such a high priority in the West as well as in Russia and China.