The Study: COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya and his team tested 3200 people in Santa Clara county California who answered a Facebook ad “about two weeks ago,” he says in this interview, recorded on 4/17/20, which would have been the first few days of April.
Between 2.8-4% of the people show they have antibodies for Covid-19, indicating they had the virus: “With that procedure we figured out somewhere between 2.8 and 4% of Santa Clara county has had evidence of Covid infection.”
“There’s about 2 million people in the county. If 4% have it…, that means that there is about 85 times more people who’ve had it per person that actually identified having it.
“The covid infection is substantially more common in the population than we realized prior to this study.”
8:45 “The bottom line is… that it’s probably as deadly as the flu or a little bit worse per case. Instead of having a death rate that the WHO said, 3 in 100 (3%)…. Instead, our estimates suggest somewhere between 1 and 2 in 1,000 (0.1 – 0.2%) die.”
There may be error rates in the tests used:
22 “The tests themselves are relatively new. … The worry about the error rates of these tests have slowed down some of the spread of these kinds of studies. … I know the tests are going to get better.”
34:30 “The tests aren’t perfect yet. They’re good enough to guide policies right now.”
34:00 In poor countries, the effects of the lockdowns are going to be absolutely catastrophic!
The Fight against COVID-19: An Update from Dr. Jay Bhattacharya
Apr 17, 2020
Recorded on April 17, 2020
A month ago, we interviewed Dr. Jay Bhattacharya just as the COVID-19 crisis was shuttering the economy and governments were ordering citizens to shelter at home. In that interview, Dr. Bhattacharya mentioned that he himself would soon be conducting tests for COVID-19 in Santa Clara County, California, one of the most active hotspots in the country. Today Dr. Bhattacharya returns to discuss the results of that study and one currently under way in partnership with Major League Baseball. We also discuss some signs of hope, and specifics about how the economy can be restarted safely and efficiently. Dr. Bhattacharya also gives some (unsolicited) advice to Dr. Anthony Fauci, California governor Gavin Newsom, and president Donald Trump.
For further information:
https://www.hoover.org/publications/u…
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