(video) Adolf Hitler & The German Economic Miracle — “Crashing threw the lies to help build a better tomorrow. Face it we have been lied to. The man who fought the banks”

The video starts in America, showing how the banksters intentionally created a false bank run in 1907 to bring in the unconstitutional, private, ‘Federal’ Reserve Bank in 1913 — after which they crashed the economy, resulting in The Great Depression.

The Talmudists also created chaos in Germany, starting with what they did during and after WWI (millions died), as well as the extreme decadence [one of the photos is risqué – WARNING].

This is part of the true story that is probably not taught in any of the public schools in America.

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[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQu3ovIlPh4]Adolf Hitler & The German Economic Miracle

Politically Incorrect

Skousen: Will Economic Collapse Predictions Finally Come True This Fall? — Most analysts are not wrong about the root problems of debt, speculation and fiat money, but they do not address the massive manipulation of the markets by government and the powers of the FED, who can keep things going and postpone collapse until war comes, when they will claim it is not their fault

World Affairs Brief, June 26, 2015 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.

Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).

WILL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE PREDICTIONS FINALLY COME TRUE THIS FALL?

Each year about this time there are several internet analysts predicting a massive economic collapse in October. This year it is a tsunami of hype that may or may not come true. Even Ron Paul’s comments about the un-sustainability of the dollar and the collapse of the entire US financial system added fuel to the fire. But my biggest issue is with the predictions of imminent collapse. In the past four or five years that I have been tracking these collapse predictions, they always come up empty. Sadly, rather than admit error, the collapse crowd peddles the same theme next year with even more scary scenarios. Most analysts are not wrong about the root problems of debt, speculation and fiat money, but they do not understand or address the massive manipulation of the markets by government and the powers of the FED—who can keep things going and postpone collapse until war comes when they will claim it is not their fault. This week, I will explain why any collapse prediction is invalid without coming to grips with the power of manipulation and the fact that there are no signs that globalists are maneuvering to let it fall.

October seems to be the favored month to trigger market crashes considering the manipulated stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987, but September is also historically a bad month. This time the shaky European bond market is providing fodder for the “sky is falling” crowd, where big liquidity problems threaten to create panic. The irrational US stock market, on the other hand, continues to rise, driven by new money from the FED and the same bandwagon effect that got people in trouble in 1929. The big difference between now and then, as I just mentioned, is the degree of control the FED has over money creation, interest rates, and secret relationships with “Too Big to Fail” banks and Wall Street investment houses that are used as conduits for liquidity injections into the markets in order to cause, halt, or take advantage of panic buying or selling.

Let’s begin with a piece by Michael Snyder, of the Economic Collapse Blog, who persistently makes the case for collapse.

Not since the financial crash of 2008 have so many prominent people issued such urgent warnings about a specific time period. Almost daily now, really big names are coming out with chilling predictions about what they believe is going to happen during the second half of 2015. But it isn’t just that these people have a “bad feeling” about things. The truth is that we are witnessing a confluence of circumstances and events in the second half of this year that is unprecedented.

This is something that I covered in a previous article that went mega-viral all over the Internet entitled “7 Key Events That Are Going To Happen By The End Of September.” [None of which are real indicators of economic collapse. Unfortunately, many of the seven are based on the flawed hype of Jonathan Cahn, author of books about Blood Moons and Shemitah prophecies focusing on Jewish calendars that I don’t believe are definitive or reliable.] Personally, I have never been more concerned about any period of time than I am about the second half of 2015.

Just a few days ago, I received an email that contained a chilling message from Lindsey Williams. You can view the same message that came to my email right here. According to Lindsey Williams, the elite insider that he is in contact with told him that there will be a global financial collapse between September and December of this year…

“WARNING! From Lindsey Williams… My elite friend indicated that they have a World Wide Financial Collapse scheduled between September and the end of December 2015. You may have just THREE (3) months to prepare!

I think the notion that the PTB have it calendared for this fall is disinformation. The real insiders would know a more precise time frame (so these few can make money off the collapse rather than go down with it). This “insider tip” about getting prepared implies that the PTB intend to create more than just economic chaos. Many pundits on the conservative side keep saying (based on other bogus insiders like the “DHS informant”) that the globalist-engineered collapse will cause social unrest which, in turn, will justify martial law.

This is very bad analysis because the government would clearly get the blame. The only way to trigger a full collapse is to cut the money supply drastically and fail to provide liquidity when thousands of speculators are in trouble. There are hundreds of FED watchers who would know to the day when the FED cut the money supply and caused a collapse.

But if they wait until the coming world war then they can blame all these horrific changes on the enemy—which is why the globalists are so eager to provoke the war. It has worked before and it will work again, diverting the blame from them to the war. These globalists aren’t stupid and always seek to use deception and crises to cover for their evil agenda.

Snyder continues: I have a ton of respect for Lindsey Williams, and I would listen to what he has to say very carefully. Back in 2008, an elite insider told him that the price of oil would drop from $140 a barrel to $40 a barrel, and it happened. This time around, Williams has been telling us throughout 2013 and 2014 that a global financial collapse was not going to happen during those years, and he was right about that. But now he is sounding the alarm that one is going to come by the end of this calendar year.

Snyder’s praise is a very selective recitation of Williams’ track record focusing only on the few times he has been right. What Snyder fails to tell his readers is that Williams was predicting collapse, based on his insider’s tips from 2010 through 2012. And he predicted collapse on and off during 2013 and 2014 until he retracted them for a brief time knowing that his track record was so dismal.

I’m absolutely certain that Williams is being played for a fool by his contacts. As I’ve written before in the WAB, nobody who is an insider is going to get away with leaking the globalist’s intentions to someone like Pastor Williams (who may be sincere) who will parade those tips to the whole world—at least not without getting caught. The NSA tracks all communications, especially those of insiders to make sure no one “talks out of school.” If this source keeps talking to Williams it is only because it is planned and he is spreading disinformation to make Williams look like a fool—which he is for believing him.

Many years ago Pastor Williams did get some good info from semi-insider Ken Fromm, CEO of ARCO, about the US capping huge oil finds in Alaska to keep US oil off the market and drive prices up. But I don’t believe Fromm was a full insider, who are all evil. Fromm just happened to be on the receiving end of threats by government to shut down a major oil find. Fromm complied but was not on board with the agenda. He used his access to those who directed him to get a glimpse of the secret control system that was running our government. He passed these concerns on to Williams, who sold them to the public as info from an insider—which wasn’t technically true.

There’s a difference between having dealings with government controllers, as Fromm did, and being one of them, which Fromm was not. After Fromm died, Williams began to get tips from one or two others claiming to be insider friends of Fromm and authorized to leak information to Williams. Williams had set himself up as someone who had “insider sources” and I believe the government set this follow-on trap for him, knowing that Williams would become an innocent accomplice in spreading disinformation.

It is true that his new sources gave him one dramatic and true tip in 2008, about the timing of the end of the rise in gasoline prices. As any oil insider at the time knew, there was a conspiracy to drive the price of oil upward by keeping supplies off the market. Controlled oil companies were filling every available land based oil storage tank with oil and every idle oil tanker offshore in order to keep supplies off the market. These sources happened to know that all the storage capacity was full in the fall of 2008, and therefore could predict almost to the week when oil would start flowing again to the refineries, dropping prices.

This grand tip made Williams a star—and also a sucker for the future bad tips he would get from his “insiders.” Although Williams has a way of continually spinning his tips in a positive way, he has never owned up to the failures. I tried to warn subscribers clear back in 2011 and 2012 about Williams and the collapse crowd (excerpt from the WAB June 29, 2012):

I field more questions from subscribers and preppers each week on the subject of economic collapse than any other topic, despite having covered in the WAB numerous reasons why neither hyperinflation nor a complete and sudden collapse of the dollar can happen this year or in the next couple of years. In fact, a total collapse could never be sudden just because of the sheer size of the dollar pool internationally.

Yet there is an unending flow of predictions of complete and imminent collapse coming from both the uninformed and the informed financial newsletter writers on the conservative/libertarian side. The latter should know better, but simply haven’t thought this out very well and are using the hype to generate sales of newsletters, financial products or the need to redeem themselves from their long litany of failed collapse predictions already posted.

Pastor Lindsey Williams is continuing to push the banking holiday/collapse scenario based upon his bogus insider sources. My late friend Bob Chapman [The International Forecaster] also got fooled into believing the various scenarios supposedly touted by law enforcement people claiming that the banks were going to close down due to an imminent collapse. That was in August of 2010. But even though that failed, Bob continued to push the collapse scenario.

There is absolutely no reason why the FED would call a banking holiday which would cut off people’s access to money. The economy would collapse within weeks, and they would get the blame. As long as they’ve got the means to keep creating money, there simply is no rationale for this. People who continue to make these claims simply don’t understand either the power of the Fed or the plans of the PTB.

The list of those calling for imminent collapse is growing longer by the week, but it doesn’t mean it is any more true. R.G. Allen, Robert Kiyosaki, Gonzalo Lira, Mike Maloney, Mike Dillard (who’s been pushing the collapse of the EURO for years now and still won’t stop despite the failure of his predictions), and more recently the National Inflation Association, Porter Stansberry and Sandy Leeds are all pushing imminent collapse. While economic fundamentals are crying out for a collapse, these good people don’t understand the powerful nature of the conspiracy we are dealing with and their ability to manipulate the economic numbers.

Even Peter Schiff is predicting collapse by 2014, as reported by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul of Beacon Equity Research—and she’s a believer too.

As you can see, all of these were wrong on timing. But they’ll be right eventually—in a way. It’s true that fiat money always ends badly, but the financial PTB know this and don’t want to be left holding the bag. That’s why they will continue to keep up the illusion of recovery until there is a sufficient external crisis (probably war) that will justify a new world fiat currency—and it won’t be a gold-backed currency despite the wishful thinking of those hyping China’s accumulation of gold reserves. The Michael Snyder piece continues:

Martin Armstrong is someone else that has been sounding the alarm about the second half of this year. In fact, Armstrong says that he has “warned that the Big Bang was coming since 1985.” [Yes, those were the old “hard money” conference days of Howard Ruff and Jim Blanchard—all of whom thought the collapse would come in the 80’s and then the 90’s. There were stock market corrections like 1987, but NONE even came close to collapse.]

In the past, I have written entire articles about economic cycle theories and what they indicate is coming in our future. [People who build models based on historical cycles can be pretty convincing, but conspiracies and manipulation of markets can’t be tracked by cycle theories.] Armstrong has developed one of his own, and he calls it the Economic Confidence Model. According to the ECM, the “sovereign debt Big Bang” is scheduled to happen by the end of 2015.

There are many aspects that are lining up with the turn in Armstrong’s ECM from the Blood Moon and the Jewish Year for forgiving the debts, to France imposing restrictions on cash in September… [I don’t view these as valid indicators of government changing the way they manage the markets.]

In case you are tempted to dismiss this as nonsense, Armstrong has pointed out that his ECM has been accurate “to the day” in the past. Of course the 1987 crash bottomed to the day with the ECM confirming that was the low. The same took place in 1994 where the U.S. share market bottomed right to the day, once again confirming this was an important low.

In fact Martin did not “call” any of these crashes way back when. My brother Mark (Forecasts and Strategies) was one of the few who actually made an open warning about the stock crash of 1987 by pointing to all the signs that were there. And Peter Schiff did call the crash of mortgage backed securities in 2008. But he hasn’t been as prescient since.

Armstrong has reconstructed his model to conform to the economic patterns of the past. But over time these economic indicators have ceased to become a reliable predictor of market action because of manipulation. Government intervention under the table is the most powerful factor today, not fundamentals. Economic instability abounds all the time and yet markets continue to be propped up by easy money (at near zero interest rates) flowing to insider big banks that keep investing in the huge speculative markets.

The government even has a “plunge protection team” of Wall Street insiders that have access to nearly unlimited FED funds in order to counter any trends that might cause runaway computer selling. Only a minority of individual investors make up the markets today. It’s the big banks, investment houses, hedge funds funds, and speculators that drive the markets.

So will the ECM be right again this time? Only time will tell, but it should be noted that the global bond market is already starting to crash. If Armstrong ultimately turns out to be correct, we could be on the verge of a major turning point.

Snyder is partly right about bonds being in trouble. But the big problem is mostly in European bonds due to the threat of a Greek default spreading to other heavily indebted EU nations. Spain, Italy and Portugal are not far behind Greece. As Yahoo Finance reported,

On Greece, the IMF made some concessions to Greek negotiators on the crucial subjects of value-added tax and pensions. These have been sticking points this week, and the IMF has been the most uncompromising of Greece’s official creditors. The IMF’s willingness to bargain suggests that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can save face and keep Greece on the euro, as most of his citizens would prefer (according to polls).

This tends to confirm my prediction that the EU globalist powers will do everything to keep the lower southern tier of nations in the EU at whatever cost. The trouble with the Greek people is that they want both—to maintain their bankrupt welfare state and stay in the EU.

Overall, bonds are in trouble in large part because of the threat of a Greek sovereign debt default. For traders, bond liquidity and predictable interest payments are the attraction (in normal times, it is easy to always find buyers among conservative investors, pension funds, and bond funds) but pensioners themselves tend to buy and hold bonds to maturity, collecting the regular interest payments. To them the threat of a sovereign default is even more serious. Right now, because of the instability over a potential Greek default, liquidity in the trading of bonds has been badly hurt and that is why bonds are in decline. As Bloomberg noted,

There are three things that matter in the bond market these days: liquidity, liquidity and liquidity. How — or whether — investors can trade without having prices move against them has become a major worry as bonds globally tanked in the past few months. As a result, liquidity, or the lack of it, is skewing markets in new and surprising ways.

Spain, for instance, must pay more to borrow money than Italy for 30 years, even though Spain is considered safer by credit raters. Why? The Italian bond market is twice as big as the Spanish one — and, therefore, more liquid.

The same thing is happening around the world. Bonds in smaller, less-traded markets like Finland, Singapore and Canada are starting to fall out of favor. And with the Federal Reserve preparing to raise U.S. interest rates, investors want to know they can sell in a hurry if debt markets turn volatile.

But to put things in perspective global bond prices have only fallen between 8 and 12% and much of this is in anticipation of a rise in interest rates—which the FED continues to postpone and postpone. The investment world doesn’t really expect a wholesale collapse of the entire financial system anymore—even though it is ultimately inevitable as Ron Paul keeps saying.

Ron Paul rightly believes that continual deficits and money creation cannot continue indefinitely. But he clearly doesn’t understand that the FED can keep things afloat a lot longer by keeping overall inflation of the money supply below 10%-15%. He also doesn’t have much understanding of the coming war agenda, which is the globalist’s escape manuever to avoid blame. Ron doesn’t even see the Russian threat. Like most libertarians, he kind of assumes that all the enemies of the globalists must be our friends. Not true.

Not seeing the crisis creation path of war, it’s easy for Ron to get caught up in the collapse predictions based upon the economy’s shaky fundamentals. That’s why he’s been hired on to imminent collapse predictors including Stansberry Research who pays him for his commentary. Stansberry is a perennial collapse prediction firm that sells alternative investment plans and buys time on alternative news web sites to promote their interviews with Paul. That’s why Ron Paul’s collapse predictions are everywhere on the web.

I’ve listened to his video presentations and I’m disappointed at their lack of detailed economic analysis as well as the utter lack of discussion over the role of the FED’s manipulation of markets. Without discussing how, why or what the FED is doing, (beyond creating money) one can’t make a credible case for imminent collapse.

As for the claims by the collapse crowd that the dollar is about to implode let me reiterate some very clear arguments I made in that 2012 WAB about what has to happen for a currency to collapse to occur. None of these are happening yet and my arguments have not been addressed by the collapse crowd:

Let me quickly review, once again, the reasons why a collapse or devaluation of the dollar, hyperinflation, or the dollar quickly losing its reserve currency status is not imminent and can’t happen quickly any time in the next few years:

1) Collapse: Collapse of a currency can only happen if it becomes relatively worthless in a short period of time. Inflation of the currency at high rates is the only thing that can cause this, ending either in devaluation and/or hyperinflation. Neither of these are real threats to the dollar currently despite the huge debt crisis.

2) Devaluation: Devaluation happens when a currency value is pegged to another at a fixed exchange rate, and the smaller currency inflates at a more rapid rate than the pegged currency causing an imbalance in demand which eventually causes the peg to be broken and a new fixed rate set. The dollar isn’t pegged to anything—it’s the standard. In a non-pegged system an informal devaluation can only occur if the dollar is being inflated at a much higher rate than other currencies. That isn’t happening because every other currency is inflating about the same rate proportional to their base as is the dollar. In fact, other currencies approve of US inflation, because it allows them to inflate their currency while maintaining the same relative exchange rate with the dollar.

3) Hyperinflation: Two things must be present for hyperinflation to happen. First, you must start with a relatively small money supply that can be expanded multiple times. The dollar base is so large, after having been inflated and spread around the world for so long that it literally can’t be inflated rapidly as compared to smaller currencies. The quantity of dollars in circulation is estimated at $300 trillion (not counting the huge non-monetized economy of derivatives, contracts and hedges perhaps as big as $500T). The FED could create $30T a year and it wouldn’t exceed 10% inflation rate. Even that huge amount isn’t hyperinflation, which results in panic spending due to rapidly rising prices. Second, a nation has to have an automatic injection mechanism to put increasing quantities of money into the pockets of consumers so they can keep up with rising prices, otherwise the inflation kills stops economic growth. We don’t have that, and what we do have (food stamps, unemployment compensation, Soc. Sec., etc,) isn’t effectively indexed to inflation. Without the public’s ability to get more money each month as in Germany in 1936, the economy retracts as people can’t keep up, and spending decreases—again stopping hyperinflation and causing stagflation.

4) Loss of Reserve Status. This also can’t happen anytime soon since the dollar base is so much larger than any other currency. You’d have to print up probably 5 times the existing quantities of Euros to supplant the dollar and that would have devastating inflationary effects on the Eurozone. The same with the British Pound. No one would trust the Chinese Yen because there’s no transparency there either. What about a basket of currencies? —The same problem exists there as in the EU—even their strict rules about one nation expanding their Euros over another, the southern tier of nations found ways of cheating. No one can trust any of these voluntary agreements anymore.

If there is a real threat right now, it’s the huge derivatives and hedge fund bubble—trillions of dollars committed in contracts but almost without actual asset backing. No big paper investment happens today with CDS derivative insurance or hedging, and little of that can actually be paid to the beneficiary if a sufficient crisis develops. However, this mainly affects the huge speculative economy—and these have the most power to get a bailout from their fellows at the FED.

Rather than see a collapse coming this year or even by 2014, I think we are going to see another mild inflationary recovery (not a true recovery), but one where inflation finally starts to overpower deflationary forces and people start to spend again, and hire. It won’t be big, but it will help the PTB extend this debt spiral until the end of the decade where even bigger world conflicts will help them escape final blame. Don’t underestimate the power of the PTB to keep inflating enough to stave off default and yet keep inflation below 10%.

That said, we are dealing with conspiracies here—and the PTB could simply decide to pull the plug on the economy. All they would have to do is stop intervening in the huge derivative market to keep those contracts from defaulting, as they have been recently in Europe. The derivatives bubble is by far the largest ponzi scheme ever—trillions in promises to pay without any means to make good on all those promises, even after the hedges balance out the excess exposure.

In fact, the derivative mess has been threatening to collapse ever since AIG in 2008, and yet the financial PTB continue to stop the derivative contracts from being collected on. In Europe, for example, they kept insisting that no default had occurred when investors in Greek bonds had to take a 50% haircut (loss on their bond investments). Hence no one could make good on those CDS default swap insurance policies (which are sold as guarantees on all these big risky investments). They change the rules all the time, and control the higher powers that might rule those changes illegal. I think they can keep this up for several more years.

Armstrong makes the prediction that people will start to disbelieve government and its power to stabilize and that this will bring down the system:

This next turning point should be the peak in the concentration of capital and confidence in government. From there on out, 2015.75 [September 2015] should mark the change in trend where people will start to disbelieve government on a grand scale. The debt markets that peak precisely with the target are going to get the worst of it.

Investment legend Jim Rogers agreed:

I suspect in the next year or two we will see some kind of major, major problems in the world financial markets. I would suspect when we have this correction, it’s going to cause central banks to panic. There’s going to come a time when there is not much the central banks can do when they have lost all credibility. When governments have lost all credibility. They will print and spend and borrow, but there comes a time when people are just going to say We don’t want to play this game anymore. And at that point, the world has serious, serious problems because there’s nothing to rescue us.

But these two opinions have one major flaw—people have no other place to go. Government will always have a “solution” controlled by them for any crisis, especially the ones they create. They don’t care if people “don’t want to play this game anymore.” What other choice is there? They put people in prison for trying to establish a competing gold backed currency.

One of the most dramatic warnings about collapse came from Alex Jones in his special video alert relaying how he had “two different calls” from “extremely prominent wealthy people” warning him about what is coming by the end of this year and asking him why he isn’t leaving the United States “before October.” He concludes that “the elite” are leaving the country and you should too.

I think that’s an incorrect deduction about the elite. The real insider elite aren’t leaving the country, even though some do have offshore residences and most have offshore bank accounts. The elite are even building sheltering structures under their resort homes because they know a nuclear war is coming.

Yes, there is a wave of wealthy people, like the ones calling Alex, hell bent on getting out of the country to what they think are safe havens like Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands. As the most noted author in the country on Strategy Relocation, I get tons of calls about off-shore retreat strategies, but I can’t recommend them. It’s not a smart strategy at all.

These people labor under the very mistaken impression that somehow the rest of the world is not going to be affected by the eventual collapse of the US dollar and the US economy, which isn’t true. All of these foreign destinations are heavily reliant on world trade, tourism and the stability of the dollar. All of their budgets are in deficit—some worse than others—but none are going to be able to provide American ex-patriots the current cheap, peaceful expat lifestyle they all read about on the net.

Worse yet for the Pacific island retreats is the threat of conquest in the next world war. China is planning to conquer their part of the world—exactly like Japan did in WWII—to seize all of the island territory on the Pacific ring. This will include Australia (where China has already bought up all the mineral rights), New Zealand and the Pacific islands. Try factoring in a Chinese occupation into your retreat plans (and the need to blend in or hide in order to survive) and the US begins to look pretty good.

A lot of people think they are going to be able to avoid the affects of the coming nuclear war by being in South America or in the Pacific. Yes, it’s true, there probably won’t be many nuclear targets in those areas, but that’s only a small part of the threats you face in war. Almost half the nations in South America presently have outright communist or former communist leaders who are actively promoting ties with Russia and China. Every nation will have to choose sides in a world war and with the growing reputation of the US as the bully of the world I wouldn’t count on a favorable long-term reception for Americans in foreign countries.

When these nation’s socialist welfare budgets become even more bankrupt than they are (look at Venezuela) the rapacious Left goes after foreign property owners and bank accounts first. Mexico has confiscated dollar accounts twice already.

[…]
Some summary comments:

While I have spoken out vigorously against the imminent collapse of the dollar and the entire fiat money system short of war (which is still a few years away), I do believe it is likely that there will be a significant correction in both the bond and stock markets—as much as 20%. If that happens this fall, the collapse crowd will say it’s a collapse, but it won’t be. The FED will intervene and it has a lot more room to expand the money supply before reaching high levels of inflation.

Remember, that economies NEVER completely collapse except under conditions of war where there is a major destruction and dislocation of structures and people—or hyperinflation, which is unlikely without any formal indexing system to allow people to keep paying higher and higher prices.

Even the “Great Depression” was not a true collapse of the economy. 75% were still employed. Yes, some were devastated financially by excessive speculation and lost everything, and many people lost their jobs because consumption nearly stopped. The big problem in the depression was that the poor had very little to fall back on, either in terms of housing, supplies, or family to lean on.Today, in contrast, even the poor are rich by comparison to the depression, with multiple cars, entertainment sets, clothes, and welfare payments. Only a war of partial destruction and the taking down of the electric grid could obliterate those accumulated assets that currently allow people to escape much of the current economic consequences.

I’m not a fan of the FED or its power to keep bailing things out, but I do know that they have even more manipulation ability than we know about and will use it to avoid losing control, and energize people against them. They have a major war agenda they are building for, which will trounce the growing opposition to globalist structures they keep trying to shove down our throats. Maintaining the appearance that they have the solutions is crucial. I think the PTB are fully aware of the risks in the current speculative economy and are working overtime to keep thing afloat—not for benevolent reasons, but to maintain power.

Skousen: "The PTB are NOT trying to collapse the system, as some disinformation artists keep leaking to naive conservative pundits … It’s not good policy but it does effectively keep kicking the can down the road until war comes"

Instead, watch for the coming Russia/China invasion as soon as 2020 (third link below).
– –
From: Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief, 9/5/14

The Eurozone is following all the FED’s moves, once again defying the internet hype about imminent economic collapse. As I keep saying, the monetary powers seem to be doing everything to keep the system bailed out. It’s not good policy but it does effectively keep kicking the can down the road until war comes to give cover for a major collapse and global restructuring of the world currency and economy. I repeat, the PTB are NOT trying to collapse the system, as some disinformation artists keep leaking to naive conservative pundits. […]

Related:
Joel Skousen: “I’m not predicting an economic collapse, but a downward spiral that will keep going. But they’ll milk it along, keep people basically fat, dumb and happy until the surprise war comes.”
Joel Skousen: Collapse Prediction Reaching a Crescendo
(audio) Joel Skousen: Timing of the Russia/China invasion of U.S.A. — Full readiness in 6-8 years!

(audio/text) Joel Skousen: ANALYZING the PROMOTERS OF DOLLAR COLLAPSE — The number of voices calling for a collapse of the dollar is reaching a crescendo and I’m compelled to do a detailed analysis to keep my readers from panicking. The Powers That Be show every sign of trying to keep things afloat with continual BAILOUTS, WITHOUT CAUSING HYPERINFLATION. I’ll cover three of the most prominent purveyors of the dollar collapse scenarios.

From: Dr. Stanley Monteith’s Radio Liberty Archives – minute 35:30

 

Date: 03-27-14
Hour: 1
3:00:Carl Gallups – Rabbi Who Met Messiah
Hour: 2
4:00: Joel Skousen – World Affairs Brief
Hour: 3
8:00:Gavin Sein – New Age Deception
Hour: 4
9:00:Andrew Skousen – World Affairs Brief
Date: 03-26-14

 

World Affairs Brief, March 28, 2014 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.

Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com)

THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS:

Prospects for a Two Region War

Is an Israeli Attack on Iran Imminent?

Analyzing the Promoters of Dollar Collapse

Internet Given Away? Not so Fast

Massive Fraud at EPA—Again

Scalia Waffles on NSA Spying—Among Other Things

Killing the Tomahawk Missile

Hospitals can be Dangerous to Your Health

Military Officers Fed Up with Political Correctness

[…]

ANALYZING THE PROMOTERS OF DOLLAR COLLAPSE

The number of voices calling for a collapse of the dollar is reaching a crescendo and I’m compelled to do a detailed analysis to keep my readers from panicking. No, I’m not saying everything is fine. It isn’t, but you have to understand both the power and the intent of the Powers That Be to see why they aren’t intentionally trying to pull the plug on the economy. In fact they show every sign of trying to keep things afloat with continual bailouts, but without causing hyperinflation. I’ll cover three of the most prominent purveyors of the dollar collapse scenarios:

Porter Stansbury: Stansbury runs an investment advisory company and he’s flooding the internet with the claim that one particular bill signed by Congress is going to collapse the dollar. The bill is H.R. 2847, the Hire Incentives to Restore Employment (HIRE) Act, which is a real bill that was signed into law in 2010. But it’s not the hiring incentives that are the threat, he says, but the evil provision that was tacked onto the bill called the “Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act.”

This portion of the bill is a problem and is known as FATCA. It is an extension of the ongoing program of the feds to pressure offshore financial institutions to provide a 1099 form to the Internal Revenue Service for their American customers, hence revealing secret foreign bank accounts and dinging America tax evaders with huge tax bills. The Hill.com gave this summary:

Under FATCA, banks will be forced to submit information on total assets, account balances, transactions, account numbers and other personal identifying information. This intrusion goes way beyond a 1099 and would not be accepted or tolerated by Americans living in United States… Noncompliance will result in huge financial penalties and sanctions to the foreign financial institutions.

Various experts can only guess how much extra revenue will be brought in by exposing undeclared foreign accounts, from between $210B to $800Billion over ten years.

Stansbury is claiming, among other things, that this will cause a run away from the dollar, because the new reporting requirements will cause everyone to pull out their dollars and dump them. Frankly, there aren’t but a small percentage of Americans that have illegal offshore accounts, so I think this is merely a sales gimmick aimed at driving people to his investment company to save them. As the Hill reported,

It is not really known what ramifications this law will have on U.S. residents with funds in foreign banks or if foreign banks will cooperate with the law… US demands on foreign banks to provide client information may violate their own country’s laws and constitutions.

The next is David Morgan, an investment expert in silver, which he promotes. These kinds of advisors do have a financial agenda that may partially skew their ability to see the broader picture, even though they are all more or less in the free-market camp. Morgan is following the lead of others in claiming some “black swan” event (once in a blue moon catastrophe) without providing any details of what would have to happen specifically for the dollar to collapse. Greg Hunter of USAwatchdog.com comments favorably on Morgan’s claims:

Silver expert David Morgan is warning of coming financial changes that may be forced on the U.S. during the next G20 meeting. Morgan says, “The impetus here is the U.S. has had too much financial power backed by the military for far too long, and they (G20) are going to implement change one way or the other.

But Morgan has absolutely no evidence to back up this claim. How are the G20 going to be able to force economic changes upon the US or other member countries? In the 2012 letter to all G20 participants from the Financial Stability Board (FSB), there is clearly no implied force in the recommendations: Ultimately, implementation is the responsibility of your jurisdictions.

Here’s what the globalist Financial Stability Board is suggesting:

1) Ending Too-Big-To Fail (which may involve some shared pain by depositors, as in Cyprus).

2) Strengthening oversight and regulation of shadow banking (good luck shutting down secret banking).

3) Increased regulation of the derivatives markets (very important but difficult to get the big banks to even put up a fraction of the $500T they contract for in derivative contracts). That much money doesn’t even existing in current markets.

4) Increasing the capacity, resources and power of the FSB (more power to the international financial regulator scheme—a predecessor to a Global Government).

Realistically, all other nations have as many problems curtailing deficit spending and speculation as does the US, so this reform can’t be targeting only the US dollar. There simply isn’t the political will to do any of these reforms democratically, so this threat is bogus. However, these kinds of quasi-international reforms are a warm-up exercise for full globalism when it arrives.

The IMF is basically an extension of the United States. Even though it’s called the International Monetary Fund, it is really U.S. based. With what’s been proposed here, the IMF is not going to have the clout that it once did because the G-20 is going to be able to overrule the IMF vote… 19 out of the G20 are saying we are mad as hell and we are not going to take anymore. You get it together or we are going to get it together for you. [There’s absolutely no backing for that statement. Not a single country I know of is saying this because they are ALL in worse shape than the US, except for Switz.].

Even if it had the power to control the IMF, the IMF doesn’t ever vote on anything targeting the US. Rather, it is marching to a globalist agenda to control other countries via loans. Why should that change? The G20, the pro-communist BRICS countries are all in favor of giving more money to other countries.

Morgan goes on to say, “For years and years, decades, the United States has exported their inflation because it’s a reserve currency, and we have the ability to just print at will. [Not really. There are internal restraints on the FED to keep inflation within certain limits.] We have pushed the U.S. dollar overseas, into Japan, into China, into Europe, all over the world, and now these dollars could be repatriated. . . .

The reason we haven’t seen inflation is those dollars have not been spent. [Half right. Perhaps only 50% of the cash is being held out of circulation in mattresses or hiding places. The rest is being circulated.] This would portend ‘I need to get out of the dollar and buy tangible assets.’ [The fact that those dollars are “not being spent” as he claims is absolutely no justification for concluding, “I need to get out of the dollar.” People are hoarding dollars because their own currencies are unstable. The drive to get rid of dollars could only happen if the dollar was being inflated a lot faster than other currencies relative to its base which is currently not the case].

This would be an impetus for these countries that don’t need dollars anymore. [There are very few in this category. China is the main one because they have too many dollars, not because they don’t need some dollars] If I don’t need these dollars and I don’t settle oil in dollars, it’s not the supreme currency. [Yes, but those who have taken themselves out of the dollar markets constitute less than 15% of the international economy—not that big. The US alone is half the dollar economy and that’s not going to go away.]

I need to get out of it.’ If that mindset takes hold widespread, [Well, give me a rational reason for how all other countries that want dollars now would suddenly want to get rid of them?] you could see the dollar dive in value against other currencies… If that were to take place, you could see a huge change virtually overnight.”

IF, IF, IF… give me some substance. Only the FED pulling back the money supply in a major way or hyperinflation could do this and we see no sign of either. Morgan thinks the world knows the dollar is in trouble. He contends, “Everyone wants to pretend that everything is OK, but [once] people say I’m out, the dollar is toast. Once that mindset takes place, it could catch fire.. It’s unlikely, but you cannot rule it out [that’s a big change of wording from the previous paragraph where he was claiming it was imminent].. . Something is going to take place this year that will have such an impact. [What, pray tell? Be specific—even a guess would help us judge how you are thinking.]

On silver, Morgan says, “The rush into gold is basically nation states, true, but the rush into silver is basically ‘the people,’ [Not at all, it’s industry much more than people.]… Gold has always been nation state to nation state settlement. . . . What will happen in my view, and this happened in late 1979 and 1980, is that people will catch on quickly. They will see what’s happening in gold and they will say ‘I can’t afford gold at $2,500 an ounce or $3,000,’ and they’ll say ‘I’m going to buy silver.’ [Nothing new here. It’s been that way ever since gold went over $500, and it hasn’t appreciably changed the gold silver price ratio].

There will be a rush into gold and then silver like you have never seen before… You will either have it or you don’t.” What are Morgan’s price targets? Morgan says, “I am on the record that silver will hit $100 an ounce, and that may be conservative [It should go that high, but it won’t while the money powers are still manipulating the silver markets]. I don’t think we need to focus on the paper price but the value of silver relative to the market.

You do need to focus on the paper markets, since that is where the manipulation of the market is happening. No predictions about the upside potential for gold and silver have any validity unless he addresses the downward suppression of Gold and Silver by paper futures contracts that rarely demand delivery. He’s right about fundamental pressures to go up, but please tell us how anyone can predict when the money powers are going to stop manipulating the price through paper contracts. Without that key, his prediction means nothing. I fully expect the pressure on silver and gold to keep going in the upward direction, but the financial powers have still got a lot of monetary muscle to keep it from rising to the level it should.

Another financial author, James Rickards (Currency Wars) has come out with another book expanding on the same theme. It’s called “The Death of Money” and he too is shouting “collapse, collapse, collapse.” It’s too bad the book is marred by this hype about collapse. The book actually has some excellent analysis of the global economy, but he draws the wrong conclusions from true facts, as I will explain shortly.

James Rickards says that the “international monetary system is headed for a collapse…. The international monetary system actually has collapsed three times in the past 100 years. It collapsed in 1914. It collapsed in 1939, and it collapsed in 1971.”

He’s obviously overusing the word collapse. None of those three examples was a true collapse and his dates don’t really correspond to the big financial problems of the era, which do include some limited collapses.

His first two collapse dates (1914 and 1939) were war years and war did destabilize the financial world, but it didn’t cause a collapse. Besides, the entire world system was in a financial funk all during 1929-1940 due to the US stock market crash (caused by the FED), and the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany (where there was a true collapse of the German Mark) but it wasn’t an international collapse. Collapse is far too excessive of a word for what Rickards is describing and I object to it strongly.

In addition, there was no collapse in 1971—simply anger over the US reneging on its promise to redeem dollars in gold. The other nations with large dollar reserves did NOT dump dollars, any more than the Chinese are dumping US bonds today—lest the price drop dramatically before they can unload their stash. They are selling slowly, and the dollar still retains a great deal of value relative to other currencies because all nations have inflated currencies, and the choice between them is only relative—especially now that the absolute value of gold and silver has been somewhat disconnected from the markets through downward manipulation.

In point of fact, economies NEVER collapse to zero because people simply move into survival mode. They never completely give up and stop trying, except during the ravages of war when people get driven out of their homes and businesses. Government money in a few countries has collapsed from hyperinflation, but even that takes a special set of circumstances that is hard to come by in modern Western economies, as I have previously explained in the WAB.

Rickards contends, “What I do for the reader is explain why the collapse is coming and, secondly, describe what this new system might look like. That should be very helpful to investors in preparing to both survive the collapse and be well positioned in terms of wealth preservation under the new system that’s coming.

In his suggested fix, he talks about IMF special drawing rights with partial gold backing and redeemability in combination with a mix of fiat currencies. That’s not a good fix. Any formula which gives fiat currencies any place at the table with gold redeemable options will ensure that governments will take advantage of the money creation option and avoid gold payouts like the plague.

Rickards, in my opinion, has way too much confidence in government’s willingness to abide by the limits he suggests. He clearly lacks an understanding of corrosive effects of socialism which dominate every nation on earth and which drive political promises.

Neither will they do the right thing based upon sound economics or the “common good.” For this reason, he does recognize that his system of reform won’t satisfy the Austrian School (the true free market theory) of economic thinkers like Mises and Hayek:

Austrian School supporters of a traditional gold standard [100% backing with redeemability in a fixed amount of gold per bill] are unlikely to endorse this new [his] gold standard because it has fractional, even variable gold backing [and allows a mix of fiat currencies to be intermingled with gold backing]. The conspiracy-minded are also unlikely to support it because it is global and has the feel of a New World Order.

That distrust is merited, due to the conspiratorial nature and evil conduct of the globalists who promote the New World Order.

Even the milder critics will point out that this system depends completely on promises by governments, and such promises have consistently been broken in the past. Yet it has the virtue of practicality; it could actually get done.

If it was accepted it would be because those who would agree to it would see that it still contains the allowance for fiat expansion of the money supply without the constraints of 100% commodity backing. But, just because it “works” doesn’t mean it is honest or fair to all.

The reason the gold redeemability standard of the Bretton Woods agreement didn’t hold is that it didn’t really prohibit the FED from printing more currency than the redeemability of the gold clause could supply. It simply relied on the US promise to redeem at a fixed price, with the implied threat of default that would follow any indiscriminate money creation without a concomitant increase in the gold supply. The rest of the world failed to figure on US perfidy and the inevitable future default on their gold obligations which came in 1971.

The promise of gold redeemability is the real thing that promoted the dollar as a reserve currency, not some ethereal or general promise of gold backing by a central bank. Gold backing without redeemability is like loaning money to someone with a collateral guarantee but no provision for foreclosure upon default.

Interestingly enough, the US has only lost about 20% of its international reserve value since reneging on the gold contract in 1971 And that is because no other currency was offering redeemability in gold either. Relative to our current situation Rickards says,

Here we are, again, looking at another collapse… A paper money standard can work, but only if you maintain confidence in the money . . . and you do that by running a good economy and having a good business environment . . . we’re doing the opposite. We are printing a lot of money [so is everyone else]. We have a lousy business environment [so has everyone else]. Taxes are too high [ditto]. Growth is too low [ditto]. So, a lot of things are combining to undermine confidence in the dollar.

In his latest book, he documents similar problems with Russia, China, Brazil, India, Britain, and the EU, so why can’t he see that all these problems don’t point to a dollar collapse, but rather a downward spiral of all economies? Rickards goes on to say,

The last time the system collapsed in 2008, the Fed rescued it. [It didn’t collapse—only the mortgage-backed securities market collapsed and the housing market which dropped about 30%.] How did they do that? Well, we know the Fed printed over $3.5 trillion in new money in the last 5 years. The Fed’s balance sheet went from $800 billion to over $4 trillion [but that inflation of the money supply was less than 2% of US dollars outstanding—hardly hyperinflation].

He missed the biggest thing the FED did to bail out the economy—they bailed out AIG, the largest holder of derivative contracts (guaranteeing those mortgage-backed securities). This alone kept the derivatives bubble from collapsing, which would have taken down not only AIG but Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. Here’s Rickard’s final warning:

When the next collapse comes, it is going to be bigger than the last one. It’s going to be exponentially bigger. The five biggest banks that were too big to fail in 2008, today they are bigger. They own a larger percentage of the total banking assets [including the FED itself, secretly]… the last crisis was barely enough for the Fed to contain. They have used up all their dry powder. They can’t take the balance sheet any higher. The Fed is insolvent… What are they going to do, take their balance sheet to $8 trillion and leverage 200 to 1? The game is up.

No, the game isn’t up and they haven’t used up all their powder. They can and show every sign of keeping real inflation below the 10% level, and if they do that it won’t turn into a hyperinflation scenario that he and others are touting:

Imagine gas at $20 a gallon and bread at $10. That’s what we’re talking about… When a collapse happens, it will happen quickly. You won’t see it coming. There won’t be time to run out and buy gold, and it probably will not even be available at that stage. You need to prepare now.”

–Not true at all. Inflation starts out slowly and then picks up speed. But before it becomes a rush, something very specific has to happen between government and consumers—income and salary raises have to become automatic and backed by government money.

Without these injection mechanisms from government you only get stagflation, not hyperinflation. If prices rose 50% suddenly as he claims, it would instantly stall the economy. As long as people don’t have a way to increase their income to match that level of inflation, they simply stop buying and the economy stops raising prices due to lack of demand. The only way hyperinflation can take hold is for government and business to start indexing people’s salaries to inflation so they can keep pace. Without it, there’s only stagflation.

In summary, Rickards is absolutely right that US debt is unsustainable and that it won’t ever be solved. But he is wrong about collapse being the only option. He fails to see they can prolong the time to a default for several more years until other events help them avoid the blame:

1) The US and the FED are NOT out of options and if they keep doing what they are doing (keeping inflation below 10%, manipulating the official inflation rate even lower, and artificially suppressing interest rates and the price of gold) they can prolong the inevitable default on US debt for a decade or more. They show every sign of doing just that, which he fails to recognize.

2) Rickards lists all the dire things that can bring down the dollar but he misses the biggest one of all. He fails to see the world war the globalists are preparing to bring down upon the world by inducing a nuclear strike on the US from Russia and China. This gives them not only an excuse to drive the West into a militarized global government and new world financial system, but helps them evade the blame for the inevitable debt collapse.

He writes as if the only threats are economic and I see that as his greatest failing, despite his otherwise erudite analysis—and he’s not alone. Most other “smart people” fail to see the world war that’s looming. But, with both Russia and China beginning to show their aggressive tendencies, you have to be willfully blind not to see this new threat emerging.

Ron Paul: The Congressional Budget Debate Is Just A Sideshow

From: infowars.com/ron-paul…

Ron Paul: The Congressional Budget Debate Is Just A Sideshow

Ron Paul
Infowars.com
March 19, 2013

Federal spending once again dominated the debate in Washington last week, as House Republicans and Senate Democrats began work on their ten-year budget plans. Contrary to claims, neither party’s budget reduces spending. While the Republican plan increases spending a little less than the Democrat plan, it would still spend $5 trillion in 2023, an almost two trillion dollar increase over this year’s budget.

Of course, these projections of future budgets are meaningless, as a current Congress cannot bind a future one. Therefore, the projected spending for next year is the only part of the budget with any significance. So is there a great gulf between the two parties’ budgets for next year? No. For fiscal year 2014, the Democrat budget proposes spending $3.7 trillion, while the “radical” Republican budget spends $3.5 trillion!

While the two parties bicker over minor differences in spending, the stock market, which many in Washington predicted would crash unless the parties reached a “grand bargain” on taxes and spending, seems unaffected by the various manufactured budget crises. Unfortunately, the market’s indifference to Washington spending games is based on the fallacy that the deficit does not matter as long as the Federal Reserve is willing to monetize the federal debt.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is certainly doing all he can to facilitate deficit spending. The Federal Reserve’s desire to monetize the federal debt is a main reason for the aggressive program of buying federal debt via the continuous quantitative easing. Under Chairman Bernanke, the Federal Reserve is pumping as much as $85 billion a month into the American economy. This out-of-control monetary policy is largely conducted behind closed doors, yet it has much more effect on the do day-to-day lives of Americans than Congress’s phony budget debates. The Federal Reserve’s polices erode the value of the dollar, causing prices to rise, which in turn diminishes people’s standard of living. This inflation tax may be the most hideous tax of all because it is both hidden and regressive.

Of course, the Federal Reserve can only keep this up for so long before doing serious damage to the economy. The Austrian school of economics teaches that the Federal Reserve is responsible for the boom-and-bust cycles that plague modern economies. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive money pumping runs the risk of creating hyperinflation — especially once banks stop hoarding their reserves and began flooding the economy with Fed-created fiat currency.

Even though the economic crisis of 2008 proved the Austrians correct, there are still too many in D.C. and on Wall Street who believe the Keynesian fallacy that government and the Federal Reserve can spend-and-inflate our way to prosperity. But, as is the case with the narcotics addict, the longer the Federal Reserve enables Congress’s habit of deficit spending, the more painful will be the withdrawal when Congress is finally forced to kick the habit.

The role of the Federal Reserve in facilitating deficit spending by the US—and even foreign governments—means it is a mistake to segregate monetary and fiscal policy. Our nation will never get its fiscal house in order until we reform monetary policy. The first step is letting the American people know the real facts about the Federal Reserve’s actions.

The debate over the federal budget and even the battle over the Federal Reserve are ultimately arguments over symptoms rather than the cause. The root of the fiscal crisis is the belief that the federal government is qualified to manage the economy, provide for the people’s needs, and spread democracy throughout the world through either by foreign aid or by force of arms. Neither party in Washington questions the welfare-warfare state.

Until Congress begins debating questions such as whether or not we really need thousands of military facilities around the world, whether or not we should shut down the Education Department and return control to local communities and parents, and whether we should allow young people to completely op-out of the entitlement programs, the so-called debates in Washington, D.C. will continue to amount to nothing but sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Former Congressman Paul’s article first appeared at the-free-foundation.org, the temporary home for his weekly column until his personal web page is up and running.

[Inflation reality check] Joel Skousen: Rampant Inflation in Latin America — "All of those predicting the collapse of the dollar need to understand that the dollar is going to look even stronger as this plays out—as others inflate, percentage wise, more than the FED. No currency is strong—it’s just a relative race to the bottom."

World Affairs Brief, February 15, 2013 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World. Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com)
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS:
State of the Union–the Art of Lying
Rubio Rebuttal–Political Grandstanding
Messed Up LA Police Department
Take Down of Edgar Steel
US Attorney General Argues Against Homeschooling
Military Exercises in Urban Areas
Rampant Inflation in Latin America
[…]
RAMPANT INFLATION IN LATIN AMERICA
Argentina and Venezuela are running between 22 and 30% inflation as corruption feeds those who run the government. Deficits are used to finance the growing burden of social welfare schemes, and a devalued currency keeps exports alive. All governments manipulate their inflation rates. Japan has doubled its rate of inflation but is still claiming only 2%. Real inflation is almost 10%. Argentina claims 10.8% but it is at least 25% and rising rapidly. Brazil is up to an official 5% but real rates are at least double that. Uruguay is running an official rate of 9%.
I lived in South America when another such inflationary cycle was going on. Each nation is trying to boost exports by making their money cheaper (devaluation by printing). The others have to devalue their currency in order to keep pace in the MERCOSUR economic market. Eventually, they end up knocking off 3 or 6 zeros and starting over.
All of those predicting the collapse of the dollar need to understand that the dollar is going to look even stronger as this plays out—as others inflate, percentage wise, more than the FED. No currency is strong—it’s just a relative race to the bottom, but it won’t happen all that fast (at least in the US).

Why QE Won't Create Inflation Quite as Expected

The unconstitutional ‘Federal’ Reserve banking cartel’s money policy is disgusting, sinister, and is destroying the U.S. economy and country. But these international banksters have ways of enriching themselves and their friends without causing massive inflation, making our currency worthless all at once — like many would expect when $Trillions are created from nothing.
According to Joel Skousen, the dollar will experience a slow death. Otherwise, too many would wake up….
We’re in the slow cooker.
jeff
_ _
From: Charles Hugh Smith

Why QE Won’t Create Inflation Quite as Expected   (September 27, 2012)

The Fed can create money but if it doesn’t end up as household income it is “dead money.”

In the consensus view, the Federal Reserve’s unlimited quantitative easing (QE3) programs will do two things: 1) boost stocks and other “risk on” assets and 2) generate inflation. The two follow-on effects are related, of course; gold and other hard assets are rising in anticipation of higher inflation.

But all is not quite as it seems when it comes to the inflationary effect of creating money. I’m going to cover a lot of ground here so buckle up and grab your favorite stimulating beverage.

Let’s use some examples to illustrate key features of the relationship between money creation and inflation. Let’s say a central bank prints $1 trillion in cash currency, digs a big hole and buries it. Does that $1 trillion in new money cause inflation? No, because it never got into the hands of people who might trade it for goods and services in the real world.

Recall that the premise of monetary inflation is straightforward supply and demand: when money is abundant and goods are scarce, the price of goods rises as abundant demand (everybody has lots of cash or credit) meets limited supply (limited oil, gold, grain, etc.) in an open marketplace.

Let’s say the Fed electronically creates $1 trillion and metaphorically buries it in some account where it sits as “dead money.” It cannot trigger inflation because it isn’t reaching the hands of people who might use it to buy scarce goods and services.

Let’s also recall that money is destroyed, not just created, when assets fall in value and bad debt is written down. Consider a house purchased for $350,000 at the top of the real estate bubble with a $50,000 cash down payment and a $300,000 mortgage. The owner defaults and the house is sold for $150,000. The $50,000 down payment was cash; it was not “on paper.” It has not been transferred to someone else; it has vanished.

The same can be said of the $150,000 the bank lost on the mortgage. The bank’s cash reserves (capital) take a $150,000 hit. That was real money, too, and it wasn’t transferred to someone else; it disappeared. Thus $200,000 of real money has been destroyed.

To the degree that immense overhangs of bad debt are slowly being written off, money is being destroyed. If the Fed “prints” $500 billion a year, and write-downs erase $500 billion, the money supply hasn’t expanded at all.

Read Entire Article with Charts Here

Joel Skousen: Rash of Dire Economic Collapse Predictions — Hyperinflation or a complete and sudden collapse of the dollar won't happen this year or in the next couple of years.

World Affairs Brief, June 29, 2012 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World. Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com)

RASH OF DIRE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE PREDICTIONS

I field more questions from subscribers and preppers each week on the subject of economic collapse than any other topic, despite having covered in the WAB numerous reasons why neither hyperinflation nor a complete and sudden collapse of the dollar can happen this year or in the next couple of years. In fact, a total collapse could never be sudden just because of the sheer size of the dollar pool internationally.

Yet there is an unending flow of predictions of complete and imminent collapse coming from both the uninformed and the informed financial newsletter writers on the conservative/libertarian side. The latter should know better, but simply haven’t thought this out very well and are using the hype to generate sales of newsletters, financial products or the need to redeem themselves from their long litany of failed collapse predictions already posted.

Pastor Lindsey Williams is continuing to push the banking holiday/collapse scenario based upon his bogus insider sources. My late friend Bob Chapman also got fooled into believing the various scenarios supposedly touted by law enforcement people claiming that the banks were going to close down due to an imminent collapse. That was in August of 2010. But even though that failed, Bob continued to push the collapse scenario.

There is absolutely no reason why the FED would call a banking holiday which would cut off people’s access to money. The economy would collapse within weeks, and they would get the blame. As long as they’ve got the means to keep creating money, there simply is no rationale for this. People who continue to make these claims simply don’t understand either the power of the Fed or the plans of the PTB.

The list of those calling for imminent collapse is growing longer by the week, but it doesn’t mean it is any more true. R.G. Allen, Robert Kiyosaki, Gonzalo Lira, Mike Maloney, Mike Dillard (who’s been pushing the collapse of the EURO for years now and still won’t stop despite the failure of his predictions), and more recently the National Inflation Association, Porter Stansberry and Sandy Leeds are all pushing imminent collapse. While economic fundamentals are crying out for a collapse, these good people don’t understand the powerful nature of the conspiracy we are dealing with and their ability to manipulate the economic numbers.

Even Peter Schiff is predicting collapse by 2014, as reported by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul of Beacon Equity Research—and she’s a believer too. “Gold and silver investors watching metals prices move back down near to the Dec. 29 lows of $1,523.90 and $26.15, respectively, should seriously consider accumulating the metals now. The ‘Big Reset’ of the global financial, slated for no later than 2014, will reward precious metals holders as the big winners among investors [that part is true, if you take possession], according to Peter Schiff.

“Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital said, ‘The United States is in a lot of trouble [true].’ After the Fed presumably embarks on QE3, and that stimulus wears off, ‘I think we’re going to have a crisis. I don’t think we’re going to have time for QE4 or QE5. I mean, ultimately, that’s where we’re headed, because that’s all QE does. Each QE sows the seeds of the next QE [also true, there’s no solution in the Fed monetizing the debt, but it does prolong things—a lot longer than these guys think].’

“And global money looking for a safe haven won’t stand for another repeated currency debasements through debt monetization by the U.S. central bank [but, in fact, do stand for it and they applaud it. All the big investors were hoping for the bailout in Europe, even those not directly involved, because it means the chances are better at keeping the whole system propped up. Few have any principles anymore]. Because Europe’s woes have forced politicians to make tough choices there, the spotlight has been taken off, temporarily, the even-more dire circumstances of debt loads and deficits of the U.S., according to Schiff [true, but understates the FEDs far greater ability to inflate and get away with it, without causing a collapse]. ‘Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors [Not true at all. While there is growing public sentiment for national interests before global interests, all the politicians in power are wedded to globalism and go along. Chancellor Merkel of Germany is a prime example—always bashing bailouts but going along and pushing for even more EU powers to deal with the crisis].’

“Schiff’s time line for the Armageddon scenario of a U.S. dollar crisis matches predictions made by commodities legend Jim Rogers and ShadowStat’s economist John Williams, with each man projecting 2014 as the year the U.S. dollar no longer maintains its former role as the world’s premiere reserve currency—implying a severe decline of its global purchasing power and much higher metals prices [The latter is mostly true, but not the destruction of the reserve status, as I will explain].

“In 2014, that’s the year the U.S. economy is expected to reach fresh new lows and the year politicians will finally be forced to face the tough choices regarding proposed cuts to federal, state and local government budgets, according to the three men [There will be no facing of the tough choices—no politician will survive if they cut spending to a balanced budget level]. It will also be the year that ushers in severe social unrest, similar to what is happening in Greece, in the case of Jim Rogers’ prediction for 2014 [maybe, if they really cut benefits and special interest spending, but that’s not going to happen].

Social unrest would only come if the government had the courage to really cut back in not only welfare and benefits, but all their other spending outlays that put millions into the hands of government connected companies and foundations.

Look at the political realities: There are huge constituencies for welfare, bailouts, foods stamps, school loans, foreign aid, military spending, loan guarantees, export-import banks, etc, etc. There are 45 million people on food stamps alone and 25 million government employees, 3 million total military, including civilian employees, and most of these people vote for a continuation of the status quo.

In addition there are millions of liberal, well healed Americans that vote for their favorite government spending programs: the arts, entertainment subsidies, education and foreign aid. After all, they aren’t getting a tax bill for it—it’s mostly deficit spending. None of these are going to tolerate the massive spending cuts necessary for national solvency.

Let me quickly review, once again, the reasons why a collapse or devaluation of the dollar, hyperinflation, or the dollar quickly losing its reserve currency status is not imminent and can’t happen quickly any time in the next few years:

1) Collapse: Collapse of a currency can only happen if it becomes relatively worthless in a short period of time. Inflation of the currency at high rates is the only thing that can cause this, ending either in devaluation and/or hyperinflation. Neither of these are real threats to the dollar currently despite the huge debt crisis.

2) Devaluation: Devaluation happens when a currency value is pegged to another at a fixed exchange rate, and the smaller currency inflates at a more rapid rate than the pegged currency causing an imbalance in demand which eventually causes the peg to be broken and a new fixed rate set. The dollar isn’t pegged to anything—it’s the standard. In a non-pegged system an informal devaluation can only occur if the dollar is being inflated at a much higher rate than other currencies. That isn’t happening because every other currency is inflating about the same rate proportional to their base as is the dollar. In fact, other currencies approve of US inflation, because it allows them to inflate their currency while maintaining the same relative exchange rate with the dollar.

3) Hyperinflation: Two things must be present for hyperinflation to happen. First, you must start with a relatively small money supply that can be expanded multiple times. The dollar base is so large, after having been inflated and spread around the world for so long that it literally can’t be inflated rapidly as compared to smaller currencies. The quantity of dollars in circulation is estimated at $300 trillion (not counting the huge non-monetized economy of derivatives, contracts and hedges perhaps as big as $500T). The FED could create $30T a year and it wouldn’t exceed 10% inflation rate. Even that huge amount isn’t hyperinflation, which results in panic spending due to rapidly rising prices. Second, a nation has to have an automatic injection mechanism to put increasing quantities of money into the pockets of consumers so they can keep up with rising prices, otherwise the inflation kills stops economic growth. We don’t have that, and what we do have (food stamps, unemployment compensation, Soc. Sec. etc) isn’t effectively indexed to inflation. Without the public’s ability to get more money each month as in Germany in 1936, the economy retracts as people can’t keep up, and spending decreases—again stopping hyperinflation and causing stagflation.

4) Loss of Reserve Status. This also can’t happen anytime soon since the dollar base is so much larger than any other currency. You’d have to print up probably 5 times the existing quantities of Euros to supplant the dollar and that would have devastating inflationary effects on the Eurozone. The same with the British Pound. No one would trust the Chinese Yen because there’s no transparency there either. What about a basket of currencies? —The same problem exists there as in the EU—even their strict rules about one nation expanding their Euros over another, the southern tier of nations found ways of cheating. No one can trust any of these voluntary agreements anymore.

If there is a real threat right now, it’s the huge derivatives and hedge fund bubble—trillions of dollars committed in contracts but almost without actual asset backing. No big paper investment happens today with CDS derivative insurance or hedging, and little of that can actually be paid to the beneficiary if a sufficient crisis develops. However, this mainly affects the huge speculative economy—and these have the most power to get a bailout from their fellows at the FED.

Rather than see a collapse coming this year or even by 2014, I think we are going to see another mild inflationary recovery (not a true recovery), but one where inflation finally starts to overpower deflationary forces and people start to spend again, and hire. It won’t be big, but it will help the PTB extend this debt spiral until the end of the decade where even bigger world conflicts will help them escape final blame. Don’t underestimate the power of the PTB to keep inflating enough to stave off default and yet keep inflation below 10%.

That said, we are dealing with conspiracies here—and the PTB could simply decide to pull the plug on the economy. All they would have to do is stop intervening in the huge derivative market to keep those contracts from defaulting, as they have been recently in Europe. The derivatives bubble is by far the largest ponzi scheme ever—trillions in promises to pay without any means to make good on all those promises, even after the hedges balance out the excess exposure.

In fact, the derivative mess has been threatening to collapse ever since AIG in 2008, and yet the financial PTB continue to stop the derivative contracts from being collected on. In Europe, for example, they kept insisting that no default had occurred when investors in Greek bonds had to take a 50% haircut (loss on their bond investments). Hence no one could make good on those CDS default swap insurance policies (which are sold as guarantees on all these big risky investments). They change the rules all the time, and control the higher powers that might rule those changes illegal. I think they can keep this up for several more years.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be preparing for a major disaster in the world, I just don’t think it’s imminent or that it is going to be financial in nature alone. I think war is the big thing that will drop all the world’s economies and that’s at least 10 years away. So, you’ve barely got time to prepare.

[interview] G. Edward Griffin on Inflation, Politics and the Power Elite — “QUANTITIVE EASING is merely a more sophisticated phrase for creating money out of nothing and pumping it into the economic sectors, wherever they have friends” — “Every election PEOPLE FALL FOR THE SAME TRICK” — “The PENTAGON is winning or ACHIEVING ITS GOAL in Middle East…TO BE THERE FOREVER.” — “All 600 rebellions and REGIME CHANGES could be the result of the CIA”

From: The Daily Bell

G. Edward Griffin on Inflation, Politics and the Power Elite

Sunday, June 19, 2011 – with Anthony Wile

G. Edward Griffin

The Daily Bell is pleased to publish an exclusive interview with G. Edward Griffin (left).

Introduction: G Edward Griffin is a film producer, author and political lecturer. He is the founder of Freedom Force International, a libertarian-oriented activist network focused on advancing individual freedom. First released in 1994, Mr. Griffin’s best-selling financial book, The Creature from Jekyll Island, is a no-holds-barred look into the inner workings of the Federal Reserve banking system, or cartel if you will. Mr. Griffin’s literary contributions are especially noteworthy given the validity of his vision and the exciting and troublesome nature of the times in which we live.

Daily Bell: Thanks for sitting down with us again. It’s been a while. We’ll ask some follow-ups to previous questions. Where do we stand with the US stimulus? Will we see QE3? Will it work any better than the last ones?

G. Edward Griffin: Well, it’s always a little dangerous to make predictions about what’s going to happen, but I think in this case the risk factor is pretty low, because that’s all these fellows know how to do … what is called QE1, QE2. Quantitative easing is merely a more sophisticated phrase for creating money out of nothing and pumping it into the economic sectors, wherever they have friends, wherever they have places they need to re-enforce, to their own economic benefit.

They always make it sound like it is for the purpose of improving the economy, but make no mistake about it, we are dealing with a pretty corrupt system and there are a lot of people in that system that need to be taken care of. The larger banks, the larger financial institutions are always at the top of the list. If you follow the money, you will find that the lion’s share of it always goes to the banks. And if it doesn’t go to directly to banks, the next share goes directly to those corporations and institutions that owe money to the banks and are having trouble making their payments.

So, by sending money to these corporations and institutions, like General Motors for example, then they are always able to continue sending money to the banks. So, it always ends up at the banks. And that should be no surprise because the engine for all this is the Federal Reserve System, and if people don’t know it by now, they should know very quickly that the Federal Reserve System is a banking cartel. It’s no different than a banana cartel or oil cartel, shipping cartel, and it happens to be a banking cartel and like all cartels the purpose of its existence is not to help the public, not to benefit the economy, not to help America, it’s to benefit the members of the cartel, period.

That’s what’s going on in the process. Its all they know how to do; that’s what they are created to do as long as they are able to exist and given the power, that is what they will continue to do. And the second part of the question is, will it work any better than it did previously, the answer is that it worked very well but the problem is most people thought it was supposed to help the economy but that was never it’s purpose, it was to help the banks.

Remember this is a cartel and so the purpose of all this easing and stimulus is to help the banks and the political structures support the banks; that was its purpose. It was a very great success. So, it will work just as well next time around, aiding those hidden agendas. In terms of the economy and the people, it was never designed to help them.

Daily Bell: Are we seeing significant price inflation now?

[…]

Daily Bell: Max Keiser estimated there are some 600 rebellions and regime changes going on in the world. These can’t all be CIA sponsored can they? Or perhaps they are the result of food insecurity. Do the elites intend to plunge the world into utter chaos? Why?

G. Edward Griffin: Well, I guess this is my day to say whatever just comes to my mind. (Laughing.) Yes, all 600 rebellions and regime changes could be the result of the CIA. I don’t think people realize how powerful and all invasive the CIA is in this world.

You know, the CIA is actively involved in all of those countries and are very influential in picking opposition candidates. Most of the leaders of the third world countries are there because the CIA supported them at one time, and those that go into office in that way can also be deposed that way. You don’t have to dig too deep to know that. They are involved in regime changes all over the world.

Daily Bell: You make an issue of being optimistic or pessimistic in your answers. But what is your overall sentiment?

G. Edward Griffin: I want to emphasize that I am probably the most optimistic person you will ever meet regarding the future of freedom. But I have a longer view of history than most and because I take a long view, it may seem as if I am pessimistic in the short term because real change takes time. Many people don’t look much further into the future, than the next election.

The forces that must be overcome have taken many years to grow to the present state of strength that they have. In the United States for example, the forces of collectivism have been growing and coalescing for decades. It took a hundred years, in fact, to capture the influence of the universities, the government, the media, the major corporations, the think tanks, etc. It took a long time.

It also resulted in conditioning the minds of the American people to accept certain presets – to accept the principles of collectivism. Americans have bought into collectivism. They think social security is a good thing. They think that governments should provide health care benefits; they think that government should provide everything as a matter of fact. They’ve been brainwashed into believing that.

In fact, it took a hundred years to bring that about. And you can’t reverse that by November. You CAN reverse it if you take a long view of history. That’s why we created an organization called Freedom Force International, because we have a longer view of history than next November. We have a view that encompasses a generation, possibly two generations and we know if we lay down the corner stones now, for certain principles and strategies, that there is no stopping them, even if the world turned to another “dark age” in the meantime.

We are laying the seeds for something that will grow and overcome the forces of tyranny in the next generation or two. And even though I may not live to see that, it’s a very comforting and optimistic thought that I am doing something that in the long run will bring the world back to the principles of freedom once again.

Daily Bell: What about Ron Paul and his freedom message?

G. Edward Griffin: I think Ron Paul is doing an excellent job given the constraints under which he must operate. Ron is not able to say anything and everything that comes to his mind, like I am here, and possibly say the things that people don’t want to hear … but fortunately I am not running for office.

Ron, poor chap, he has to worry about not saying too much for fear he may go beyond the understanding or educational level of the people he wants to vote for him. So, that’s a terrible constraint to live under. He is doing the most amazing job I have ever seen and I can’t imagine anyone doing any better under that constraint.

Daily Bell: We discussed the way the conservative movement is desperate to co-opt the libertarian message and that it has launched a number of artificial candidates to do so – including notably Sarah Palin. What do you think?

G. Edward Griffin: It’s becoming more and more obvious. I guess if people don’t fall for it any more, then I guess you could say it’s failing. With each turn of the wheel, with each election, people should learn that they fell for the same old trick, one more time. Every election people fall for the same trick. And that trick is, they believe the campaign speeches of the candidates. They don’t realize that the candidates, for the most part, spend a lot of time and money either conducting polls or studying polls very carefully. They do it to find out what people want to hear. And then they hire campaign managers and speechwriters to enable them to deliver to the population what they want to hear.

In many cases, politicians are just little recording devices. They have no feelings for what they are saying, they have no connections, they have only one goal and that is to get elected. And it is hard to find a person who you can say does not fit into that category. The only way that you can tell if a candidate is a real genuine person is by looking at their career. See what they have done in the past. Voters, unfortunately, are not too good at that. They just seem to want to hear what the candidate says, does he or she sound sincere and so on. The candidates are basically performers, like actors. But when you take what you call, the conservative movement, and that’s a good word, because that’s exactly what they call themselves, many of these people have been in office for a long time and all you have to do is look at their voting record and you can see what they believe, or at least what they vote for. And then when they come along and say they are going to restore the constitution and restore this country to constitutional principals and you see their voting records, you find out that 99% of the time when they voted, they violated the constitution. That ought to be a clue of what they are really all about.

So as each election goes by, and this trick is played on the voters again and again and again, I think there are a few more people that wake up to that trick. Eventually, and I don’t know how long it will take, I think more people will wake up. Let’s hope we have enough time.

Daily Bell: We think Ron Paul has a reasonable chance to become president. Optimistic? Loony?

G. Edward Griffin: As one man, he is kind of limited. He could say all the truths in the world and nobody would ever hear him because the mainstream media would block him. They would never alow him to make those statements – or the people to hear them. If they did, his statements would be twisted and accompanied by commentary, which would make him seem like he was some kind of ogre.

I don’t think Ron Paul, as one man, can overcome that. However, an army of supporters, millions of supporters, can. So then you come to the next question, well what if he did get elected? Does anybody really think that one man in the White House even with his high principles can change anything? When he is surrounded by a congress, senate, media and educational system that are all working against him, including the military, it can’t be done. We are back to one of my favorite themes, which is that in order to bring about real positive change in America, our movement has to be broader than just winning the election in November. We could put a man in the White House in November but lose everything.

Daily Bell: Your sentiments remind us of something former presidential candidate and a departed friend of ours, Harry Browne, once said when asked what would be the first thing he would do should he be elected president. His reply – “I’d quit.” I guess that summarized how he felt about the constraints. Anyway, back to Ron Paul … Dr. paul is anti-war, overseas anyway. We think the Pentagon is beginning to lose badly in Afghanistan. Your thoughts?

G. Edward Griffin: I think he is anti-aggressive-war. Is the Pentagon loosing badly in Afghanistan? What is the military presence in Afghanistan? Is it really to root out all the insurgents or is it to encourage the insurgents and keep them active, so we have an excuse to be there? I think the Pentagon is winning or achieving its goal in Middle East. Its goal is to be there and to have a reason to be there forever.

Daily Bell: We think Osama bin Laden died ten years ago and that the SEALS “tapping” of bin Laden was phony. Your thoughts?

G. Edward Griffin: I agree.

Daily Bell: How about 9/11. We’ve asked this before. Will the American establishment media ever get to the bottom of 9/11? Are you more hopeful? Last time you were not.

G. Edward Griffin: Well, I don’t think the major media will ever get to the bottom of it because they are not motivated to. They are controlled by the investment and political powers-that-be that don’t want the media to get to the bottom of 9/11. Like we were saying, it has to be a grass roots movement. Millions of people are acting in addition – or around major media – and I see that movement growing all the time.

I haven’t seen figures lately, but I remember maybe 6 or 7 months ago, that about 48% of the people thought that the official government story of 9/11 was not true. They didn’t know what it was but they had a strong feeling it was not true, that there was something being covered up. Well that progressed quite rapidly. A few years prior to that only 5% of the people believed that was true. Now, I don’t know what it would be, but I bet it’s closer to 60%.

That is not because of the major media. That is simply because people like us have been out there talking about this and presenting evidence. We are circulating CD’s and independent productions that bypass the major media. I think that is where our hope lies.

Entire Interview Here

Joel Skousen: Short-term hyperinflation not likely

This is only part of the interview,
which continues discussing Alex on The View
(Joel coaches Alex),
Glenn Beck
and much more.

To listen (free) or watch (as a subscriber) the rest,
go to PrisonPlanet.tv…

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZBN4OALXYE]Joel Skousen: The Final Economic Countdown 1/3

Uploaded by on Mar 10, 2011

Alex welcomes back to the show political scientist Joel Skousen, editor and publisher of World Affair Brief, a weekly news analysis service dedicated to providing an understanding of the hidden agendas behind the actions of world leaders and other powerful individuals who influence government from behind the scenes. Skousen has written several books, including Essential Principles for the Conservation of Liberty, and Strategic Relocation — North American Guide to Safe Places. Alex also covers the latest news and takes your calls.
www.joelskousen.com
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