NOTICE these numbers are for the entire Mat-Su valley: Wasilla, Palmer, etc..

Posted on Facebook 3/4/21

Elizabeth Gayle [5/21 update: now changed to ‘Elizabeth Welsh’]

Did Anchorage’s Emergency Orders work?

Let’s take a look at the numbers that matter. Cases alone are irrelevant, as testing is unreliable (lots of false positives because cycle thresholds were too high), and most people just have the sniffles. The important metrics are deaths and hospital capacity (which is what we were told in the beginning, that the intent behind mandates was to protect hospital capacity and save lives).

In Anchorage, with extremely restrictive orders, a mask mandate, and no in-person school, there have been 242.12 hospitalizations / 100,000 people and 55.2 deaths/ 100,000. (Using a population of 288,000)

In the Mat Su, which has had no health powers nor mandates in place since May, and kids in school since August, there have been 92.7 hospitalizations / 100,000 people and 32.7 / 100,000 people. (Using a population of 110,000)

If the goal was less death and fewer hospitalizations, which approach was more effective? Freedom and personal responsibility, where those willing to risk it contributed to faster herd immunity, or oppressive, tyrannical Emergency Orders?

How does Anchorage get away with justifying ANYTHING they’ve done? What will be the fall out?

Data from DHSS covid dashboard [Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Coronavirus Response Hub].

Elizabeth Gayle
Also interesting to add to this analysis, Anchorage has 10.5 % over age 65, whereas the MatSu has 12.7 %, making the Matsu a more vulnerable population than Anchorage (based on age alone as the main risk factor for covid). Population info from census.gov
Elizabeth Gayle
If you also consider household size (as I heard someone say at the last assembly meeting that Anchorage has many multi generation families in one house and that most of the spread is in homes so it’s unfair to compare to the valley), the average household size is 2.69 people in Anchorage and 3.31 in the MatSu. This makes the MatSu older and more “crowded” per residence. Making it an even more vulnerable population.
Elizabeth Gayle
Also, if you look at cases, Anchorage has had 19,703 cases per 100,000 people. MatSu has had 7,698 cases per 100,000 people. But in those numbers, keep in mind that the valley has tested 1.04 test/person and Anchorage has tested 2.9 tests/person. This is why you can’t look at “cases.” Hospitals and deaths are the metrics that matter. If people aren’t being denied at the hospital because hospital capacity is just fine, then what is the problem?