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Bob Chapman: Retiring During Double-Digit Inflation—Calculation ‘Fun’

From: Bob Chapman’s International Forecaster, 4/26/08

Sociopathic Economics, Denial, and the Weakening Dollar

They claim inflation is 4%, when it is over 12%. They claim unemployment is 5% when it is 14%. They claim we lost 80,000 jobs last month when most likely we lost over 300,000. They claim our economy is turning around as consumer confidence drops to the lows of the early 1980’s and in light of the fact that 70% of our tanking economy is driven by consumer spending. They make it look like the big banks and financial institutions are being bailed out by the Fed when it is really the taxpayers doing the bailing through HUD, FHLB, Fannie, Freddie and hyperinflation. They say banks are starting to show signs of recovery even as their insolvency deepens due to the ongoing destruction of a mountain of quivering derivatives as foreclosures accelerate, as real estate prices plummet, as maniacal bets are unwound and as the bear market in bonds gets underway because rate cuts appear to be subsiding for a short while, at least until the next debacle hits. The old “we’re in it for the long term” is being bandied about again by the media morons (aka commentators) to keep the dupes in so the Illuminati can bail out at the top through their dark pools of liquidity while everyone else is left holding the bag.

Our government officials as well as banking and corporate leaders have created a culture permeated with pathological liars and sociopaths. They subscribe to the same situational ethics, which they are teaching to our children so they can grow up to be miscreants like them. Some of them may even believe their own lies, being unable to separate truth from fiction anymore because the lying has been so rampant and pervasive. Some have probably even forgotten what the real truth is, having not entertained it or even thought about it for decades. And who can blame the ones who have, for the real truth is nothing less than terrifying. Their plans call for the depopulation of five billion people by starvation, disease and who knows what else, the destruction of western economies and the beggaring and serfdom of the citizens of the US, Canada and Western Europe, all with the whimsical hope that we can all dance around the One World maypole together some day before they haul us all off to internment camps.

The disconnect that has occurred between what we are told and what we actually experience must be leaving uninformed non-subscribers [to The International Forecaster] in a surreal state, where they can no longer reconcile what their eyes see with what their ears hear. You have two choices. You can become a subscriber to the IF, or you can enter “The Twilight Zone.”

We thought we would have a little calculation fun in this issue to show you the devastating effects of inflation along with the deflation of real estate. If these calculations do not get you motivated to institute some change, nothing will.

Let’s say you’re a millionaire in the year 2000 when you decide to retire. You have exactly 1 million dollars set aside for your retirement. Assume that on average you invest it conservatively outside of precious metals and commodities at a very generous 5% return after taxes from the beginning of 2000 to the end of 2011. According to Shadowstats, inflation has averaged around 9% from 2000 to 2007, and we expect it to average about 15% for the period 2008 to 2011, which is extremely conservative considering that actual GDP, as opposed to official GDP, is a negative 2% to 3% or so, while M3 is running between 17% and 18%, giving us an inflation spread of about 20% that will soon manifest itself in 2009 and beyond. Even current inflation is already over 12%. So let’s see how much money you have left in dollars based on the dollar’s buying power in the year 2000 when you get to the year 2011. Some simple math shows that in the year 2011 you would have $1,795,856 in 2011 dollars, but the buying power equivalent in year 2000 dollars would only be a very disappointing $515,309. You’re no longer a millionaire by year 2000 standards. In fact, your buying power has been cut in half! And if inflation is not stopped at some point, it will only get worse! Had you only managed a 2% after tax return instead of 5%, you would have $1,268,242 dollars in 2011 dollars, but your buying power in year 2000 dollars is reduced to a stinking $363,913, or about a third of what you started with! Now let’s throw in the withdrawals you had to make and the taxes you had to pay along the way, and any thoughts you might have concerning your upcoming retirement get downright depressing. Then try to imagine how you would feel if your original kitty was only $200,000, or $100,000 or, like most people, a measly $50,000 or less. Then you get pauperized!

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1 Comment

  1. Marcelino

    *It�s hard to find knowledgeable people on this topic, but you sound like you know what you�re talking about! Thanks

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