In summary, it is very clear that the government is going to do everything within its money creation and regulatory powers to keep this banking system failure in check. The PTB even trotted out Joe Biden to tell Americans “the US banking system is safe” even as shares plummeted up to 74% in pre-market trading despite president’s guarantee scheme for SVB and Signature Bank.
The financial powers first had to halt all trading in bank stocks while they organized a stock intervention response so the “crash” of bank stocks was blunted. The fact that the “plunge protection team” had to intervene so forcefully to stop the run on bank stocks indicates the big boys aren’t ready for a market crash yet.
• • •
World Affairs Brief, March 17, 2023 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).
WHY THE CURRENT BANKING SYSTEM IS ALWAYS SUBJECT TO COLLAPSE
The collapse of three high-risk banking institutions this week may seem like an anomaly, but it’s not, considering the fragile nature of our banking system. All banks are inherently susceptible to bank runs because they, like insurance companies, are only required to keep a small portion of their assets in cash or liquid assets available for withdrawal within a short time. When cash funds are exhausted, banks must sell their most liquid assets, which are usually in the form of US Treasury bonds. When demands for withdrawal exceed a bank’s cash and liquid assets, the bank becomes insolvent—unless it can get other larger banks to give them some “bridge loans” at higher interest rates, which they just did for First Republic Bank. But they won’t be willing to do if the problem bank’s balance sheet contains too many weak performing loans. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank both ran out of the foregoing options this week and collapsed, but what was different this week was that the Federal Reserve and FDIC stepped in and decided to bailout all depositors, most of which far exceeded the $250K cap on federal deposit insurance, in order to stave off a larger bank panic. While this may work in the short term, it sets a very dangerous precedent in that it is 1) illegal, 2) rewards risky bank speculation, and 3) it sets up a double standard for bailouts that the government can’t possible fulfill if more banks default. This week I will discuss the many reasons why SVB failed and why other banks are similarly vulnerable.
First, a Primer on Banking Continue reading “Skousen: Overview of the Banking Crisis – What you need to know”
Definitely worth watching, but I don’t trust some of Zeihan’s analysis. He doesn’t seem to understand the globalists’ plans, and how Russia and China are planning to take the US out with EMPs and nukes. China wants the USA’s land, But he has some ideas that could pan out, based on lots of data!
“I don’t worry about China at all, he says.”
1,121,972 views | Sep 23, 2022
I don’t trust some of this geopolitical strategist’s analysis. Zeihan doesn’t seem to understand the globalists’ plans, and how Russia and China are planning to take the US out with EMPs and nukes. China wants the USA’s land, But he has some ideas that could pan out, based on lots of data!
Dec 19, 2022
Building back worse, destroying the American dollar & America:
Biden: “I don’t want to hear any more of these lies about reckless spending, We’re changing people’s lives!”
World Affairs Brief, May 20, 2022 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).
PROSPECTS FOR AN INFLATIONARY RECESSION
The US economy is at an unlikely tipping point where the common person feels the hurt of stagflation with rising prices, but no more increased income to keep buying at the same pace, while the burgeoning upper middle class and wealthy are still feeling flush with the false perception of increased wealth that higher prices brings initially—only to find out later how little it can really buy. For decades now, low interest rates have driven new business growth including in speculative startups, digital currency and stocks with only marginal value. The easy money has created dramatic levels of perceived new wealth, but only some of it is real—created or spent in the real economy where it contributes to actual growth and helps small business. Most has gone into highly speculative stocks and investments or crypto currencies, since there’s been no incentive to put it in savings at less than 1% interest rates. Thus the economy is booming in some sectors and hurting in others. 15% real inflation has ravaged ordinary people’s budgets but the well-heeled are further up the supply chain where the real effects of inflation are delayed. They still feel like they have huge amounts of money to spare and can afford the bid up prices to get what they want—except where manmade supply problems are slowing down most company’s ability to fulfill sales. Continue reading “Skousen: Inflation has eroded 40% of Social Security’s purchasing power since 2000 | Inflation now 15%, FED says 5-6%”
You can triple the official rate of inflation to approximate the real rate—$15%. That’s how much the Commerce Department distorts and hides inflation using all kinds of gimmicks and adjustments.
• • •
World Affairs Brief, October 29, 2021 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).
BIDENFLATION STALLS ECONOMIC RECOVERY Continue reading “Skousen: Bidenflation Stalls Economic Recovery — Triple official inflation rate to get actual—$15%”
Patent attorney John Titus said that the Federal Reserve (Fed) added $4.5 trillion to its balance sheet since March 2020, which is the largest monetary event in the history of the world! Not only did the Fed add a gargantuan $4.5 trillion in reserves, but they did it in such a way that it forced the creation of $4.5 trillion in new bank money, for the express purpose of deliberately causing mass inflation. The Federal Reserve is carrying out this plan under the cover of the so-called pandemic, but the plan was created before Covid-19 was introduced. The plan was drafted by BlackRock and given to the Federal Reserve in August 2019, four months before Covid struck.
World Affairs Brief, August 20, 2021 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
PRECIOUS METALS, STOCKS AND INFLATION
There seems to be a disconnect between precious metals and inflation. Collecting or investing in silver and gold used to be a reliable hedge against inflation. But ever since inflation started raging above 10% last year, silver and gold have remained flat. More and more traders now acknowledge that both metals are being artificially manipulated downward. My personal opinion, which I can’t prove (because the details are kept hidden) is that the inside players (like central banks) can sell silver and gold on the open market and buy back privately without reporting it, to replenish their stocks and drive down prices.
But stocks no longer follow real trends, and are powerfully manipulated. Breitbart business noted that stocks strangely went up last Monday after the Taliban’s victory over Afghanistan. “The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averages reached all-time highs on the day that America woke up to find the Taliban once again running Afghanistan” That should have been a down sign for all the billions government is spending on military contractors, but it didn’t seem to matter. Continue reading “Skousen: Precious Metals, Stocks and Inflation”
HYPERINFLATION is the Goal To Usher in a New Monetary System. What Will It Look Like?
Massive inflation is the proposal it seems with trillions more to be pumped into the economy. Food prices are rising significantly as we see the inflation at this time. More money, cash, debt, entering the system. There is an influx of capital going into the stock market from institutions, money managers, corporations, individual retail investors, all directions. Very low interest rates, mortgage rates increasing prices of everything.
Regarding Michael Snyder’s prediction here, he’s been wrong many times before, but we’ll see. Joel Skousen has called him out many times, and has been predicting the powers that be won’t allow total collapse so the boiling frogs won’t jump out of the pot.
This Is The Worst Inflation Since The 1970s, And The Stage Is Being Set For The Total Collapse Of The U.S. Economy
July 13, 2021 by IWB
How does it feel to live in a country with double-digit inflation? On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics told us that the consumer price index has risen 5.4 percent over the past 12 months, and such a high number shocked a lot of people. But in order to make a fair comparison to the past, we have to account for the fact that the way inflation is calculated has been changed literally dozens of times over the past several decades. According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1990, the official rate of inflation over the past 12 months would be about 9 percent. And if inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation over the past 12 months would be well into double-digits.
“..contrary to history, the Fed is refusing to raise rates to stem inflation—falsely claiming it is only a “temporary” blip. They have always let rates rise before with high demand, but not now. Something different is going on, which tells me there is a nasty agenda afoot.”
• • •
World Affairs Brief, May 14, 2021 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
HIGHER INFLATION IS HERE—AND IT WON’T BE SHORT-LIVED
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell had to acknowledge signs of higher inflation but said he won’t be raising interest rates because this bout with inflation will be “short lived.” This week I will tell you why it won’t be short lived and why the Powers that Be (PTB) actually want a damaging period of inflation as part of their drive to undermine the private economy, discredit free markets and further induce people to demand more socialist controls and higher taxes on “the rich.” Ironically, the middle class could soon find themselves in the higher tax bracket as inflation drives incomes higher. By artificially keeping interest rates low, the FED and member banks are systematically denying people’s savings an honest return on their money, and inducing many to seek higher returns elsewhere, in either stocks or cryptocurrencies. Gold and silver, the traditional hedges against inflation are under continued and constant manipulation in order to keep their prices stagnant, which is also driving even more money into the bubble of stocks and cryptos. Continue reading “Skousen: High Inflation Is Here, and It Won’t Be Short Lived — A nasty agenda afoot! …allows Dems to decry the not-so-free markets; blame them, and induce people to demand *price controls*”
World Affairs Brief, April 23, 2021 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).
Federal Reserve Hides Money Supply Figures:
Gold bug Matthew Piepenburg details how the FED is no longer reporting most M1, and M2 money figures to hide all the money creation it is doing. It’s no longer just falsifying CPI inflation figures, but falsifying the debt level as well. As Mark Tapscott reports, the true national debt is $123T, or nearly $800k per person.
World Affairs Brief, April 16, 2021 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com).
Inflation Rising Fast: Even the heavily manipulated CPI is showing inflation has doubled. That equates to a real inflation rate of near 10% per annum and higher. “The U.S. rate of inflation rose to 2.6 percent, a two-and-a-half year high. [the CPI is normal falsified at a low 1.5%] Consumer prices surged in March as well. Gas led the way with a jump of over 9 percent. [building material prices have more than doubled] If inflation creeps up much more, there will be increased pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. [Breitbart News] And more realistic interest rates may spell an end to the new housing bubble.
World Affairs Brief, March 5, 2021 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Will the Dollar Crash? Dozens of free market economic writers and sellers of precious metals are predicting the imminent demise of the dollar, as the speculative markets in stocks and Bitcoin surge to record levels. I too am concerned about the uncontrolled money creation the FED is doing to bailout the elite as well as the common citizen hurt by the unnecessary pandemic shutdowns, but keep in mind that the FED has been secretly creating money for decades far in excess of what their public numbers claim. They have been shoveling trillions out the door to bail out European banks for years, not to mention all the pallets full of hundred dollar bills they have shipped to Russia and Middle Eastern countries to pay off oligarchs and warlords.
None of that is recorded. In short, the pool of dollars is so much larger than any other country, they can inflate with near abandon and not have it come to hyperinflation—at least for now. I think they will use the coming war to replace the dollar, however, for a new world currency (controlled by the globalists).
Remember this day: no [new]wars in 4 years, job security, oil independence, gas under $2.10 per gallon, stock market above 30k. Post for reference.
Gasoline is currently $2.54 per gallon in Anchorage, Alaska. (see below)
January 8th, 2021 — historic, devastating day for free speech online. Twitter permanently bans Trump! Rush Limbaugh leaves Twitter in solidarity. [Panel thought Limbaugh was banned too.]
2:29:20 TIM: ‘The reset’ is about recalibrating the people. That’s what they mean by ‘the reset.’
2:29:30 Tim: the left will snap if they stop getting welfare or Covid payments. The right will snap if the government lets inflation skyrocket, so they can’t keep their businesses going.
Bit Coin may go to $1 million.
66% increase in money in one year — 2020!
First third of the show is excellent. Once Tim changes the subject to climate change, it’s out of Chris’ expertise, and Chris is mostly ignored.
Vitamin D truth suppressed
66% increase in the money supply
Most of the money is going to rich people. Inflation is highest in what they buy.
Seeing that the world is buried under an unprecedented mountain of debt that is requiring more and more central planner intervention to keep from imploding on itself, Jim says history is clear on what happens next.
A clearing of the debt either via massive default, or destruction of the currency it’s denominated in.
He looks into the future and sees a terrible reckoning ahead; one he predicts will be “the worst economic crisis of my lifetime” — and Jim is 78 years old.
So where should investors look to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth against what’s coming?
Jim highly recommends precious metals and other commodities as an important part of the solution. As an overall index, commodities are the cheapest they’ve ever been vs the general stock market in over half a century.
Like many of the previous guest experts on our program, Jim maintains the near-term environment will be one of the most challenging times to invest in our lives.
Which is why he’s emphatic that now, more than ever, is the time to partner with a financial advisor who understands the risks in play, can craft an appropriate portfolio strategy for you given your needs, and apply sound risk management protection where appropriate.
M1 is made up of demand deposits and savings deposits held by the public. M2 consists of all cash in circulation plus money market mutual funds.
26:25 M1 money supply is at a record high. M2, cash in circulation is at a near record high.
30:30 Actual inflation right now, if it was measured the way it used to be is 9%, while the government says it’s 2%.
41:30 “The thing to watch here is the magnitude of the deficit spending, the stimulus…. The deficit spending is now out of control. The ratio of the deficit to GDP … is the highest level we’ve ever seen.”
Serious inflation inevitable because the unconstitutional private ‘Federal’ Reserve Bank is unconstitutionally printing way too much money from nothing.
This is drier than part 1, but also important — explaining the Talmudic bankster system that is destroying us, while they get rich, having sold their souls.
7:25 ‘City of London’ manipulates the gold rate.
• • •
Real Big Power: Revelations by insider Ronald Bernard-part 2
Part 2: Dutch spoken, English subs. A DVM-TV production.
In accordance with part 1 (link below) see here part 2, in which Ronald Bernard describes how the pyramid of power functions and converges. At the end of the interview you see a short overview of part 3 in which many questions will be answered. Soon more parts will follow. Related article: https://irmaschiffers2014.wordpress.c…
Part 1, full version: https://youtu.be/VzoaxTudJks
“So often up here things become partisan and people just want to point fingers and say it’s that party that did it, they’re the ones responsible for the debt, but I want to let you in on a secret. This is a secret that goes on and on and on up here. It is something I call the unholy alliance. It is the unholy alliance between right and left. They both have sacred cows they want to spend money on.
So instead of saying you know what, the debt is a real problem and we both have to conserve in both areas, they both get together and raise the money for the secret cows. On the right we are busting the limits because the right wants more military spending, the left wants more for welfare, the unholy alliance a secret handshake, and what gets worse? The debt. We’re borrowing $1 million every minute, and it’s not going to end in a pretty way.”
“When I ran for office in 2010, the debt was an enormous issue and the debt was $10 trillion. Some of us in the tea party were concerned because it had doubled in the last eight years. It doubled from five to ten under a Republican administration. And many of us were adamant that Republicans needed to do a better job. We had added new entitlement programs, we had added new spending, and the deficit got worse under Republicans. Now we’re under a Democrat president, and it’s set to double again.
This president will add more to the debt than all of the previous presidents combined. So we’re going to go from $10 trillion now to nearly $20 trillion. We may get close to $20 trillion. Now that we have increased the debt ceiling in an unspecified amount, we may well get to $20 trillion by the time this president leaves. Is it a problem? Some people say it’s just a big number.
I don’t know what a trillion dollars is. Well, if you want to imagine a trillion dollars, take $1,000 bills and put them in your hand. $1,000 bills four inches high is a million dollars. But if you want to have a trillion dollars in $1,000 bills, it would be 63 miles high. We’re talking about an amount of money that is hard to fathom, and you say what does that mean? How does that hurt me or my family?”
“It disappoints me, greater than I can possibly express, that the party that I belong to that should be the conservative party doesn’t appear to be conservative.”
– Rand Paul (source)
• • •
[youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNsmztsbM8w]Sen. Rand Paul Speaks Out Against Budget Agreement on Senate Floor – October 29, 2015
Rand Paul: Some ‘Christians’ are “Too Eager for War” — “Jesus stood up in a different sort of way … ‘Blessed are the peacemakers’ not ‘blessed are the war-makers’”
Ron Paul: Christian Just War Theory — “Evidently, I have been reading a different Bible. I remember something about ‘Blessed are the Peacemakers’”
Ron Paul’s Biggest Eye-Opener: ‘Christian’ Evangelicals Pushing Preemptive War in the Name of Spreading Christian ‘Love’
(video) Ron Paul Booed by Reverse-Christian Debate Audience for Endorsing the Golden Rule
EVANGELICALS’ LEGACY: Biggest WARMONGERS! – 2005-6 Gallup Poll: Protestants and Frequent Churchgoers Most Supportive of Iraq War — Least supportive are non-Christians and people with no religion
Ron Paul’s Christlike Attitude: Love, Peace & Hope – No *Initiation* of Aggression!
 Ron Paul’s Statement of Faith
‘Just War’ Doctrine Abandoned in America — U.S. Foreign Policy Now Reverse-Christian
Just War and the Iran Crisis
Three Questions for Memorial Day: (1) Can we remember without attributing reasons for war that aren’t in fact the real reasons? (2) Can we remember the innocent victims of war even as we remember those who died while fighting? (3) Can we remember without the “us versus them” factor? — Perhaps if all who died were commemorated…
Chuck Baldwin: Why Do Evangelicals Ignore Ron Paul? | My Opinion
Chuck Baldwin: What Does John Hagee Really Want? — “These WARMONGERING EVANGELICALS beat the war drums; they encourage the young men from their churches to go off and fight these ‘holy’ wars; they WORK TIRELESSLY TO ELECT PRO-WAR POLITICIANS…. Then, the politicians … send the US military to invade, bomb, and KILL HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of people, the vast majority of whom are innocent people. … ANIMOSITY against the United States is GROWING EXPONENTIALLY; in an effort to keep our country at war, our ECONOMY is being overburdened and overtaxed TO THE POINT OF NO RETURN; in the name of the “War on Terror,” America is on the verge of becoming a giant POLICE STATE; we are INCITING CHINA AND RUSSIA INTO NUCLEAR WAR; and America’s military VETERANS are KILLING THEMSELVES more frequently than are enemy bullets”
Ron Paul: “I’m supporting Chuck Baldwin” & “the most difficult group to recruit has been the evangelicals who supported McCain and his pro-war positions”
The Amazing Ron Paul: Bribe Money — “Wars should not be covert or casual. We absolutely should not be paying off leaders of a country while killing their civilians…. This is not what America is supposed to be about.”
Pat Buchanan: “On foreign policy … Ron Paul and Sarah Palin are on opposite sides completely.” What would Jesus do?
Sarah Palin demonstrates why most evangelicals dissed Ron Paul, who wanted to bring the troops home. ‘Christians’ have two sets of books: one for US and one for THEM (“who don’t deserve rights”). THEY’re not our ‘neighbor’ whom Jesus commanded US to love as much as ourselves. Maybe that’s why most evangelicals refuse to investigate 9/11. If THEY didn’t take down the towers…???
Ron Paul on Evangelical Christians Expected to Be Pro-War All the Time
Ron Paul on what precedes LIBERTY: Life “and I mean all LIFE!”
Ron Paul: “Fascism Comes Wrapped In A Flag, Carrying A Cross”
Ron Paul: Jesus is the Prince of PEACE, Not Preemptive War
Ron Paul’s Christlike Attitude: Love, Peace & Hope – No *Initiation* of Aggression!
Ron Paul Speaks To The Right To Life Foundation
Ron Paul at the Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference: “Life does begin at conception.” — We would like to think all we have to do is elect the right politicians and everything is going to be okay. But the government is a reflection of the people. The people change before the laws change. Morality has a lot to do with legislation.
Lew Rockwell: The Enemy is in Washington. That’s why RON PAUL runs NOT FOR GLORY, not for POWER, not for CONTROL. He runs to dismantle the aperatus in Washington. He wants to stop the war, stop the Fed’s counterfeiting, stop the rip-offs for the big bank, the big corporation, and for Big Pharma.” | CAN RON PAUL WIN? CAN THE ‘CHRISTIANS’ put their DESIRE FOR BLOOD below their desire to have some kind of standard of living…?
“Blessed are the PEACEMAKERS” Ron Paul: Well meaning church people are keeping the “war on drugs” [the war against the CIA’s competition] going, which helps finance the dark side of our government — our own demise!
Vote For Peace – Ron Paul 2012 — “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called children of God” – Jesus
[Repentance from Power-OVER music video] Golden State: Bombs (End This War/The Ron Paul Song) — “It’s not impossible that we can end this war / Just let your heart explode / It’s not to late for a miracle! — No more lying; No more sighing; I’m still trying, Arms wide open!” | Lets’ be real Christians — “Blessed are the PEACEMAKERS, for they shall be called CHILDREN OF GOD” – Jesus
[Daily Paul comment] The real reason evangelical ‘Christians’ won’t support Ron Paul — “the so called evangelical right wing’s incredible and insatiable lust for war. War is not a family value. War is certainly not a Christian value. … Christ’s views on love and peace and so forth are pretty clearly spelled out. … Many professing Christians will be numbered with the goats on judgement day.”
Sean Stone (Oliver Stone’s son): Should the United States Bomb Iran? Sean Stone returns from Iran — ATTACKING IRAN COULD MAKE THINGS WORSE for ISRAEL!
[Video] 60 Minutes: Meir Dagan, former Israeli CHIEF of MOSSAD tells Lesley Stahl that an AIRSTRIKE anytime soon AGAINST IRAN is premature and COULD LEAD TO *DISASTER*!
Greg Boyd: In the kingdom of God, we are not allowed to have any enemies. All body-bags are equally tragic.
Sarah Palin: U.S. Troops in Iraq Doing God’s Will — “A Task that is From God”
What is Anchorage’s new statue sitting there thinking? “Why does Alaska still support Sarah Palin, the OPPOSITE OF RON PAUL on foreign interventionism?” — & — “Why did ‘Christians’ in this town vote for George W. Bush, the OPPOSITE OF JESUS on foreign interventionism, TWICE?”
Fenske on Chuck Norris’ “Would Jesus Support War?” – ‘A God of War’ & ‘*a* Prince of Peace’
My observation: Satan is using US to take out regimes that oppose his one-world government/anti-Christ reign. Be on God’s side. Don’t follow the crowd; follow Jesus. “Come out from them and be separate,” says God. Be holy. Let’s love!
Alex Jones: Qaddafi is another tyrant the globalists can’t control, so they’re going after him. The globalists are running the whole world and mopping up the final few countries they don’t control. They’re knocking over the old puppets, putting new ones in.
EXCELLENT! Cynthia McKinney: Obama’s So Called Humanitarian Aid to Libya is A Disaster: “The American people are being lied to.” Kadafi was standing in the way of a globalist, Mediterranean states alliance with Europe.
Ron Blessed-are-the-PEACEmakers Paul: U.S. War On Libya Totally UnConstitutional | Jesus: Peacemakers = “Children of God”
Col. Bob Bowman: The immorality they’re foisting on this country — We haven’t been the good guys for a long time. The countries we’ve invaded happen to be the few countries in the world that are not part of the Rothschilds’ banking cartel.
Pastor Chuck Baldwin: Will Evangelicals Ever Admit They Were Duped by Bush?
Reverse-Christian George W. Bush: ‘D___ right’ I personally ordered waterboarding — When will evangelicals admit they were wrong, voting for this known Skull and Bonesman for even his 2nd term?
[Reverse-Christianity] Torture and the American Conscience: Most white ‘Christian’ evangelicals and white Catholics condone torture
World Affairs Brief, June 26, 2015 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
WILL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE PREDICTIONS FINALLY COME TRUE THIS FALL?
Each year about this time there are several internet analysts predicting a massive economic collapse in October. This year it is a tsunami of hype that may or may not come true. Even Ron Paul’s comments about the un-sustainability of the dollar and the collapse of the entire US financial system added fuel to the fire. But my biggest issue is with the predictions of imminent collapse. In the past four or five years that I have been tracking these collapse predictions, they always come up empty. Sadly, rather than admit error, the collapse crowd peddles the same theme next year with even more scary scenarios. Most analysts are not wrong about the root problems of debt, speculation and fiat money, but they do not understand or address the massive manipulation of the markets by government and the powers of the FED—who can keep things going and postpone collapse until war comes when they will claim it is not their fault. This week, I will explain why any collapse prediction is invalid without coming to grips with the power of manipulation and the fact that there are no signs that globalists are maneuvering to let it fall.
October seems to be the favored month to trigger market crashes considering the manipulated stock market crashes of 1929 and 1987, but September is also historically a bad month. This time the shaky European bond market is providing fodder for the “sky is falling” crowd, where big liquidity problems threaten to create panic. The irrational US stock market, on the other hand, continues to rise, driven by new money from the FED and the same bandwagon effect that got people in trouble in 1929. The big difference between now and then, as I just mentioned, is the degree of control the FED has over money creation, interest rates, and secret relationships with “Too Big to Fail” banks and Wall Street investment houses that are used as conduits for liquidity injections into the markets in order to cause, halt, or take advantage of panic buying or selling.
Let’s begin with a piece by Michael Snyder, of the Economic Collapse Blog, who persistently makes the case for collapse.
Not since the financial crash of 2008 have so many prominent people issued such urgent warnings about a specific time period. Almost daily now, really big names are coming out with chilling predictions about what they believe is going to happen during the second half of 2015. But it isn’t just that these people have a “bad feeling” about things. The truth is that we are witnessing a confluence of circumstances and events in the second half of this year that is unprecedented.
This is something that I covered in a previous article that went mega-viral all over the Internet entitled “7 Key Events That Are Going To Happen By The End Of September.” [None of which are real indicators of economic collapse. Unfortunately, many of the seven are based on the flawed hype of Jonathan Cahn, author of books about Blood Moons and Shemitah prophecies focusing on Jewish calendars that I don’t believe are definitive or reliable.] Personally, I have never been more concerned about any period of time than I am about the second half of 2015.
Just a few days ago, I received an email that contained a chilling message from Lindsey Williams. You can view the same message that came to my email right here. According to Lindsey Williams, the elite insider that he is in contact with told him that there will be a global financial collapse between September and December of this year…
“WARNING! From Lindsey Williams… My elite friend indicated that they have a World Wide Financial Collapse scheduled between September and the end of December 2015. You may have just THREE (3) months to prepare!”
I think the notion that the PTB have it calendared for this fall is disinformation. The real insiders would know a more precise time frame (so these few can make money off the collapse rather than go down with it). This “insider tip” about getting prepared implies that the PTB intend to create more than just economic chaos. Many pundits on the conservative side keep saying (based on other bogus insiders like the “DHS informant”) that the globalist-engineered collapse will cause social unrest which, in turn, will justify martial law.
This is very bad analysis because the government would clearly get the blame. The only way to trigger a full collapse is to cut the money supply drastically and fail to provide liquidity when thousands of speculators are in trouble. There are hundreds of FED watchers who would know to the day when the FED cut the money supply and caused a collapse.
But if they wait until the coming world war then they can blame all these horrific changes on the enemy—which is why the globalists are so eager to provoke the war. It has worked before and it will work again, diverting the blame from them to the war. These globalists aren’t stupid and always seek to use deception and crises to cover for their evil agenda.
Snyder continues: I have a ton of respect for Lindsey Williams, and I would listen to what he has to say very carefully. Back in 2008, an elite insider told him that the price of oil would drop from $140 a barrel to $40 a barrel, and it happened. This time around, Williams has been telling us throughout 2013 and 2014 that a global financial collapse was not going to happen during those years, and he was right about that. But now he is sounding the alarm that one is going to come by the end of this calendar year.
Snyder’s praise is a very selective recitation of Williams’ track record focusing only on the few times he has been right. What Snyder fails to tell his readers is that Williams was predicting collapse, based on his insider’s tips from 2010 through 2012. And he predicted collapse on and off during 2013 and 2014 until he retracted them for a brief time knowing that his track record was so dismal.
I’m absolutely certain that Williams is being played for a fool by his contacts. As I’ve written before in the WAB, nobody who is an insider is going to get away with leaking the globalist’s intentions to someone like Pastor Williams (who may be sincere) who will parade those tips to the whole world—at least not without getting caught. The NSA tracks all communications, especially those of insiders to make sure no one “talks out of school.” If this source keeps talking to Williams it is only because it is planned and he is spreading disinformation to make Williams look like a fool—which he is for believing him.
Many years ago Pastor Williams did get some good info from semi-insider Ken Fromm, CEO of ARCO, about the US capping huge oil finds in Alaska to keep US oil off the market and drive prices up. But I don’t believe Fromm was a full insider, who are all evil. Fromm just happened to be on the receiving end of threats by government to shut down a major oil find. Fromm complied but was not on board with the agenda. He used his access to those who directed him to get a glimpse of the secret control system that was running our government. He passed these concerns on to Williams, who sold them to the public as info from an insider—which wasn’t technically true.
There’s a difference between having dealings with government controllers, as Fromm did, and being one of them, which Fromm was not. After Fromm died, Williams began to get tips from one or two others claiming to be insider friends of Fromm and authorized to leak information to Williams. Williams had set himself up as someone who had “insider sources” and I believe the government set this follow-on trap for him, knowing that Williams would become an innocent accomplice in spreading disinformation.
It is true that his new sources gave him one dramatic and true tip in 2008, about the timing of the end of the rise in gasoline prices. As any oil insider at the time knew, there was a conspiracy to drive the price of oil upward by keeping supplies off the market. Controlled oil companies were filling every available land based oil storage tank with oil and every idle oil tanker offshore in order to keep supplies off the market. These sources happened to know that all the storage capacity was full in the fall of 2008, and therefore could predict almost to the week when oil would start flowing again to the refineries, dropping prices.
This grand tip made Williams a star—and also a sucker for the future bad tips he would get from his “insiders.” Although Williams has a way of continually spinning his tips in a positive way, he has never owned up to the failures. I tried to warn subscribers clear back in 2011 and 2012 about Williams and the collapse crowd (excerpt from the WAB June 29, 2012):
I field more questions from subscribers and preppers each week on the subject of economic collapse than any other topic, despite having covered in the WAB numerous reasons why neither hyperinflation nor a complete and sudden collapse of the dollar can happen this year or in the next couple of years. In fact, a total collapse could never be sudden just because of the sheer size of the dollar pool internationally.
Yet there is an unending flow of predictions of complete and imminent collapse coming from both the uninformed and the informed financial newsletter writers on the conservative/libertarian side. The latter should know better, but simply haven’t thought this out very well and are using the hype to generate sales of newsletters, financial products or the need to redeem themselves from their long litany of failed collapse predictions already posted.
Pastor Lindsey Williams is continuing to push the banking holiday/collapse scenario based upon his bogus insider sources. My late friend Bob Chapman [The International Forecaster] also got fooled into believing the various scenarios supposedly touted by law enforcement people claiming that the banks were going to close down due to an imminent collapse. That was in August of 2010. But even though that failed, Bob continued to push the collapse scenario.
There is absolutely no reason why the FED would call a banking holiday which would cut off people’s access to money. The economy would collapse within weeks, and they would get the blame. As long as they’ve got the means to keep creating money, there simply is no rationale for this. People who continue to make these claims simply don’t understand either the power of the Fed or the plans of the PTB.
The list of those calling for imminent collapse is growing longer by the week, but it doesn’t mean it is any more true. R.G. Allen, Robert Kiyosaki, Gonzalo Lira, Mike Maloney, Mike Dillard (who’s been pushing the collapse of the EURO for years now and still won’t stop despite the failure of his predictions), and more recently the National Inflation Association, Porter Stansberry and Sandy Leeds are all pushing imminent collapse. While economic fundamentals are crying out for a collapse, these good people don’t understand the powerful nature of the conspiracy we are dealing with and their ability to manipulate the economic numbers.
Even Peter Schiff is predicting collapse by 2014, as reported by Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul of Beacon Equity Research—and she’s a believer too.
As you can see, all of these were wrong on timing. But they’ll be right eventually—in a way. It’s true that fiat money always ends badly, but the financial PTB know this and don’t want to be left holding the bag. That’s why they will continue to keep up the illusion of recovery until there is a sufficient external crisis (probably war) that will justify a new world fiat currency—and it won’t be a gold-backed currency despite the wishful thinking of those hyping China’s accumulation of gold reserves. The Michael Snyder piece continues:
Martin Armstrong is someone else that has been sounding the alarm about the second half of this year. In fact, Armstrong says that he has “warned that the Big Bang was coming since 1985.” [Yes, those were the old “hard money” conference days of Howard Ruff and Jim Blanchard—all of whom thought the collapse would come in the 80’s and then the 90’s. There were stock market corrections like 1987, but NONE even came close to collapse.]
In the past, I have written entire articles about economic cycle theories and what they indicate is coming in our future. [People who build models based on historical cycles can be pretty convincing, but conspiracies and manipulation of markets can’t be tracked by cycle theories.] Armstrong has developed one of his own, and he calls it the Economic Confidence Model. According to the ECM, the “sovereign debt Big Bang” is scheduled to happen by the end of 2015.
There are many aspects that are lining up with the turn in Armstrong’s ECM from the Blood Moon and the Jewish Year for forgiving the debts, to France imposing restrictions on cash in September… [I don’t view these as valid indicators of government changing the way they manage the markets.]
In case you are tempted to dismiss this as nonsense, Armstrong has pointed out that his ECM has been accurate “to the day” in the past. Of course the 1987 crash bottomed to the day with the ECM confirming that was the low. The same took place in 1994 where the U.S. share market bottomed right to the day, once again confirming this was an important low.
In fact Martin did not “call” any of these crashes way back when. My brother Mark (Forecasts and Strategies) was one of the few who actually made an open warning about the stock crash of 1987 by pointing to all the signs that were there. And Peter Schiff did call the crash of mortgage backed securities in 2008. But he hasn’t been as prescient since.
Armstrong has reconstructed his model to conform to the economic patterns of the past. But over time these economic indicators have ceased to become a reliable predictor of market action because of manipulation. Government intervention under the table is the most powerful factor today, not fundamentals. Economic instability abounds all the time and yet markets continue to be propped up by easy money (at near zero interest rates) flowing to insider big banks that keep investing in the huge speculative markets.
The government even has a “plunge protection team” of Wall Street insiders that have access to nearly unlimited FED funds in order to counter any trends that might cause runaway computer selling. Only a minority of individual investors make up the markets today. It’s the big banks, investment houses, hedge funds funds, and speculators that drive the markets.
So will the ECM be right again this time? Only time will tell, but it should be noted that the global bond market is already starting to crash. If Armstrong ultimately turns out to be correct, we could be on the verge of a major turning point.
Snyder is partly right about bonds being in trouble. But the big problem is mostly in European bonds due to the threat of a Greek default spreading to other heavily indebted EU nations. Spain, Italy and Portugal are not far behind Greece. As Yahoo Finance reported,
On Greece, the IMF made some concessions to Greek negotiators on the crucial subjects of value-added tax and pensions. These have been sticking points this week, and the IMF has been the most uncompromising of Greece’s official creditors. The IMF’s willingness to bargain suggests that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can save face and keep Greece on the euro, as most of his citizens would prefer (according to polls).
This tends to confirm my prediction that the EU globalist powers will do everything to keep the lower southern tier of nations in the EU at whatever cost. The trouble with the Greek people is that they want both—to maintain their bankrupt welfare state and stay in the EU.
Overall, bonds are in trouble in large part because of the threat of a Greek sovereign debt default. For traders, bond liquidity and predictable interest payments are the attraction (in normal times, it is easy to always find buyers among conservative investors, pension funds, and bond funds) but pensioners themselves tend to buy and hold bonds to maturity, collecting the regular interest payments. To them the threat of a sovereign default is even more serious. Right now, because of the instability over a potential Greek default, liquidity in the trading of bonds has been badly hurt and that is why bonds are in decline. As Bloomberg noted,
There are three things that matter in the bond market these days: liquidity, liquidity and liquidity. How — or whether — investors can trade without having prices move against them has become a major worry as bonds globally tanked in the past few months. As a result, liquidity, or the lack of it, is skewing markets in new and surprising ways.
Spain, for instance, must pay more to borrow money than Italy for 30 years, even though Spain is considered safer by credit raters. Why? The Italian bond market is twice as big as the Spanish one — and, therefore, more liquid.
The same thing is happening around the world. Bonds in smaller, less-traded markets like Finland, Singapore and Canada are starting to fall out of favor. And with the Federal Reserve preparing to raise U.S. interest rates, investors want to know they can sell in a hurry if debt markets turn volatile.
But to put things in perspective global bond prices have only fallen between 8 and 12% and much of this is in anticipation of a rise in interest rates—which the FED continues to postpone and postpone. The investment world doesn’t really expect a wholesale collapse of the entire financial system anymore—even though it is ultimately inevitable as Ron Paul keeps saying.
Ron Paul rightly believes that continual deficits and money creation cannot continue indefinitely. But he clearly doesn’t understand that the FED can keep things afloat a lot longer by keeping overall inflation of the money supply below 10%-15%. He also doesn’t have much understanding of the coming war agenda, which is the globalist’s escape manuever to avoid blame. Ron doesn’t even see the Russian threat. Like most libertarians, he kind of assumes that all the enemies of the globalists must be our friends. Not true.
Not seeing the crisis creation path of war, it’s easy for Ron to get caught up in the collapse predictions based upon the economy’s shaky fundamentals. That’s why he’s been hired on to imminent collapse predictors including Stansberry Research who pays him for his commentary. Stansberry is a perennial collapse prediction firm that sells alternative investment plans and buys time on alternative news web sites to promote their interviews with Paul. That’s why Ron Paul’s collapse predictions are everywhere on the web.
I’ve listened to his video presentations and I’m disappointed at their lack of detailed economic analysis as well as the utter lack of discussion over the role of the FED’s manipulation of markets. Without discussing how, why or what the FED is doing, (beyond creating money) one can’t make a credible case for imminent collapse.
As for the claims by the collapse crowd that the dollar is about to implode let me reiterate some very clear arguments I made in that 2012 WAB about what has to happen for a currency to collapse to occur. None of these are happening yet and my arguments have not been addressed by the collapse crowd:
Let me quickly review, once again, the reasons why a collapse or devaluation of the dollar, hyperinflation, or the dollar quickly losing its reserve currency status is not imminent and can’t happen quickly any time in the next few years:
1) Collapse: Collapse of a currency can only happen if it becomes relatively worthless in a short period of time. Inflation of the currency at high rates is the only thing that can cause this, ending either in devaluation and/or hyperinflation. Neither of these are real threats to the dollar currently despite the huge debt crisis.
2) Devaluation: Devaluation happens when a currency value is pegged to another at a fixed exchange rate, and the smaller currency inflates at a more rapid rate than the pegged currency causing an imbalance in demand which eventually causes the peg to be broken and a new fixed rate set. The dollar isn’t pegged to anything—it’s the standard. In a non-pegged system an informal devaluation can only occur if the dollar is being inflated at a much higher rate than other currencies. That isn’t happening because every other currency is inflating about the same rate proportional to their base as is the dollar. In fact, other currencies approve of US inflation, because it allows them to inflate their currency while maintaining the same relative exchange rate with the dollar.
3) Hyperinflation: Two things must be present for hyperinflation to happen. First, you must start with a relatively small money supply that can be expanded multiple times. The dollar base is so large, after having been inflated and spread around the world for so long that it literally can’t be inflated rapidly as compared to smaller currencies. The quantity of dollars in circulation is estimated at $300 trillion (not counting the huge non-monetized economy of derivatives, contracts and hedges perhaps as big as $500T). The FED could create $30T a year and it wouldn’t exceed 10% inflation rate. Even that huge amount isn’t hyperinflation, which results in panic spending due to rapidly rising prices. Second, a nation has to have an automatic injection mechanism to put increasing quantities of money into the pockets of consumers so they can keep up with rising prices, otherwise the inflation kills stops economic growth. We don’t have that, and what we do have (food stamps, unemployment compensation, Soc. Sec., etc,) isn’t effectively indexed to inflation. Without the public’s ability to get more money each month as in Germany in 1936, the economy retracts as people can’t keep up, and spending decreases—again stopping hyperinflation and causing stagflation.
4) Loss of Reserve Status. This also can’t happen anytime soon since the dollar base is so much larger than any other currency. You’d have to print up probably 5 times the existing quantities of Euros to supplant the dollar and that would have devastating inflationary effects on the Eurozone. The same with the British Pound. No one would trust the Chinese Yen because there’s no transparency there either. What about a basket of currencies? —The same problem exists there as in the EU—even their strict rules about one nation expanding their Euros over another, the southern tier of nations found ways of cheating. No one can trust any of these voluntary agreements anymore.
If there is a real threat right now, it’s the huge derivatives and hedge fund bubble—trillions of dollars committed in contracts but almost without actual asset backing. No big paper investment happens today with CDS derivative insurance or hedging, and little of that can actually be paid to the beneficiary if a sufficient crisis develops. However, this mainly affects the huge speculative economy—and these have the most power to get a bailout from their fellows at the FED.
Rather than see a collapse coming this year or even by 2014, I think we are going to see another mild inflationary recovery (not a true recovery), but one where inflation finally starts to overpower deflationary forces and people start to spend again, and hire. It won’t be big, but it will help the PTB extend this debt spiral until the end of the decade where even bigger world conflicts will help them escape final blame. Don’t underestimate the power of the PTB to keep inflating enough to stave off default and yet keep inflation below 10%.
That said, we are dealing with conspiracies here—and the PTB could simply decide to pull the plug on the economy. All they would have to do is stop intervening in the huge derivative market to keep those contracts from defaulting, as they have been recently in Europe. The derivatives bubble is by far the largest ponzi scheme ever—trillions in promises to pay without any means to make good on all those promises, even after the hedges balance out the excess exposure.
In fact, the derivative mess has been threatening to collapse ever since AIG in 2008, and yet the financial PTB continue to stop the derivative contracts from being collected on. In Europe, for example, they kept insisting that no default had occurred when investors in Greek bonds had to take a 50% haircut (loss on their bond investments). Hence no one could make good on those CDS default swap insurance policies (which are sold as guarantees on all these big risky investments). They change the rules all the time, and control the higher powers that might rule those changes illegal. I think they can keep this up for several more years.
Armstrong makes the prediction that people will start to disbelieve government and its power to stabilize and that this will bring down the system:
This next turning point should be the peak in the concentration of capital and confidence in government. From there on out, 2015.75 [September 2015] should mark the change in trend where people will start to disbelieve government on a grand scale. The debt markets that peak precisely with the target are going to get the worst of it.
Investment legend Jim Rogers agreed:
I suspect in the next year or two we will see some kind of major, major problems in the world financial markets. I would suspect when we have this correction, it’s going to cause central banks to panic. There’s going to come a time when there is not much the central banks can do when they have lost all credibility. When governments have lost all credibility. They will print and spend and borrow, but there comes a time when people are just going to say We don’t want to play this game anymore. And at that point, the world has serious, serious problems because there’s nothing to rescue us.
But these two opinions have one major flaw—people have no other place to go. Government will always have a “solution” controlled by them for any crisis, especially the ones they create. They don’t care if people “don’t want to play this game anymore.” What other choice is there? They put people in prison for trying to establish a competing gold backed currency.
One of the most dramatic warnings about collapse came from Alex Jones in his special video alert relaying how he had “two different calls” from “extremely prominent wealthy people” warning him about what is coming by the end of this year and asking him why he isn’t leaving the United States “before October.” He concludes that “the elite” are leaving the country and you should too.
I think that’s an incorrect deduction about the elite. The real insider elite aren’t leaving the country, even though some do have offshore residences and most have offshore bank accounts. The elite are even building sheltering structures under their resort homes because they know a nuclear war is coming.
Yes, there is a wave of wealthy people, like the ones calling Alex, hell bent on getting out of the country to what they think are safe havens like Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands. As the most noted author in the country on Strategy Relocation, I get tons of calls about off-shore retreat strategies, but I can’t recommend them. It’s not a smart strategy at all.
These people labor under the very mistaken impression that somehow the rest of the world is not going to be affected by the eventual collapse of the US dollar and the US economy, which isn’t true. All of these foreign destinations are heavily reliant on world trade, tourism and the stability of the dollar. All of their budgets are in deficit—some worse than others—but none are going to be able to provide American ex-patriots the current cheap, peaceful expat lifestyle they all read about on the net.
Worse yet for the Pacific island retreats is the threat of conquest in the next world war. China is planning to conquer their part of the world—exactly like Japan did in WWII—to seize all of the island territory on the Pacific ring. This will include Australia (where China has already bought up all the mineral rights), New Zealand and the Pacific islands. Try factoring in a Chinese occupation into your retreat plans (and the need to blend in or hide in order to survive) and the US begins to look pretty good.
A lot of people think they are going to be able to avoid the affects of the coming nuclear war by being in South America or in the Pacific. Yes, it’s true, there probably won’t be many nuclear targets in those areas, but that’s only a small part of the threats you face in war. Almost half the nations in South America presently have outright communist or former communist leaders who are actively promoting ties with Russia and China. Every nation will have to choose sides in a world war and with the growing reputation of the US as the bully of the world I wouldn’t count on a favorable long-term reception for Americans in foreign countries.
When these nation’s socialist welfare budgets become even more bankrupt than they are (look at Venezuela) the rapacious Left goes after foreign property owners and bank accounts first. Mexico has confiscated dollar accounts twice already.
Some summary comments:
While I have spoken out vigorously against the imminent collapse of the dollar and the entire fiat money system short of war (which is still a few years away), I do believe it is likely that there will be a significant correction in both the bond and stock markets—as much as 20%. If that happens this fall, the collapse crowd will say it’s a collapse, but it won’t be. The FED will intervene and it has a lot more room to expand the money supply before reaching high levels of inflation.
Remember, that economies NEVER completely collapse except under conditions of war where there is a major destruction and dislocation of structures and people—or hyperinflation, which is unlikely without any formal indexing system to allow people to keep paying higher and higher prices.
Even the “Great Depression” was not a true collapse of the economy. 75% were still employed. Yes, some were devastated financially by excessive speculation and lost everything, and many people lost their jobs because consumption nearly stopped. The big problem in the depression was that the poor had very little to fall back on, either in terms of housing, supplies, or family to lean on.Today, in contrast, even the poor are rich by comparison to the depression, with multiple cars, entertainment sets, clothes, and welfare payments. Only a war of partial destruction and the taking down of the electric grid could obliterate those accumulated assets that currently allow people to escape much of the current economic consequences.
I’m not a fan of the FED or its power to keep bailing things out, but I do know that they have even more manipulation ability than we know about and will use it to avoid losing control, and energize people against them. They have a major war agenda they are building for, which will trounce the growing opposition to globalist structures they keep trying to shove down our throats. Maintaining the appearance that they have the solutions is crucial. I think the PTB are fully aware of the risks in the current speculative economy and are working overtime to keep thing afloat—not for benevolent reasons, but to maintain power.
Instead, watch for the coming Russia/China invasion as soon as 2020 (third link below).
From: Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief, 9/5/14
The Eurozone is following all the FED’s moves, once again defying the internet hype about imminent economic collapse. As I keep saying, the monetary powers seem to be doing everything to keep the system bailed out. It’s not good policy but it does effectively keep kicking the can down the road until war comes to give cover for a major collapse and global restructuring of the world currency and economy. I repeat, the PTB are NOT trying to collapse the system, as some disinformation artists keep leaking to naive conservative pundits. […]
Joel Skousen: “I’m not predicting an economic collapse, but a downward spiral that will keep going. But they’ll milk it along, keep people basically fat, dumb and happy until the surprise war comes.”
Joel Skousen: Collapse Prediction Reaching a Crescendo
(audio) Joel Skousen: Timing of the Russia/China invasion of U.S.A. — Full readiness in 6-8 years!
Very interesting overview at minute-6.
Regarding collapse, I’m inclined to believe Joel Skousen, who predicts the globalist banksters will do whatever they have to in order to keep total collapse from happening, so the people won’t rise up and really demand change until the Russia/China invasion of the US occurs.
Minute-6![youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv2YuAuYxCA]Whistleblower Nomi Prinz Exposes The Nefarious Deeds Of The Global Banking Elite
Published on Apr 17, 2014
In this interview Nomi Prinz, Whistleblower and Author discuses recent global events with Alex and gives her perspective on the current machinations of the global elite bankers.
Her new book All The Presidents Bankers can be found here:
From: Dr. Stanley Monteith’s Radio Liberty Archives – minute 35:30
|3:00:Carl Gallups – Rabbi Who Met Messiah|
|4:00: Joel Skousen – World Affairs Brief|
|8:00:Gavin Sein – New Age Deception|
|9:00:Andrew Skousen – World Affairs Brief|
World Affairs Brief, March 28, 2014 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World.
Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com)
THIS WEEK’S ANALYSIS:
Prospects for a Two Region War
Is an Israeli Attack on Iran Imminent?
Analyzing the Promoters of Dollar Collapse
Internet Given Away? Not so Fast
Massive Fraud at EPA—Again
Scalia Waffles on NSA Spying—Among Other Things
Killing the Tomahawk Missile
Hospitals can be Dangerous to Your Health
Military Officers Fed Up with Political Correctness
ANALYZING THE PROMOTERS OF DOLLAR COLLAPSE
The number of voices calling for a collapse of the dollar is reaching a crescendo and I’m compelled to do a detailed analysis to keep my readers from panicking. No, I’m not saying everything is fine. It isn’t, but you have to understand both the power and the intent of the Powers That Be to see why they aren’t intentionally trying to pull the plug on the economy. In fact they show every sign of trying to keep things afloat with continual bailouts, but without causing hyperinflation. I’ll cover three of the most prominent purveyors of the dollar collapse scenarios:
Porter Stansbury: Stansbury runs an investment advisory company and he’s flooding the internet with the claim that one particular bill signed by Congress is going to collapse the dollar. The bill is H.R. 2847, the Hire Incentives to Restore Employment (HIRE) Act, which is a real bill that was signed into law in 2010. But it’s not the hiring incentives that are the threat, he says, but the evil provision that was tacked onto the bill called the “Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act.”
This portion of the bill is a problem and is known as FATCA. It is an extension of the ongoing program of the feds to pressure offshore financial institutions to provide a 1099 form to the Internal Revenue Service for their American customers, hence revealing secret foreign bank accounts and dinging America tax evaders with huge tax bills. The Hill.com gave this summary:
Under FATCA, banks will be forced to submit information on total assets, account balances, transactions, account numbers and other personal identifying information. This intrusion goes way beyond a 1099 and would not be accepted or tolerated by Americans living in United States… Noncompliance will result in huge financial penalties and sanctions to the foreign financial institutions.
Various experts can only guess how much extra revenue will be brought in by exposing undeclared foreign accounts, from between $210B to $800Billion over ten years.
Stansbury is claiming, among other things, that this will cause a run away from the dollar, because the new reporting requirements will cause everyone to pull out their dollars and dump them. Frankly, there aren’t but a small percentage of Americans that have illegal offshore accounts, so I think this is merely a sales gimmick aimed at driving people to his investment company to save them. As the Hill reported,
It is not really known what ramifications this law will have on U.S. residents with funds in foreign banks or if foreign banks will cooperate with the law… US demands on foreign banks to provide client information may violate their own country’s laws and constitutions.
The next is David Morgan, an investment expert in silver, which he promotes. These kinds of advisors do have a financial agenda that may partially skew their ability to see the broader picture, even though they are all more or less in the free-market camp. Morgan is following the lead of others in claiming some “black swan” event (once in a blue moon catastrophe) without providing any details of what would have to happen specifically for the dollar to collapse. Greg Hunter of USAwatchdog.com comments favorably on Morgan’s claims:
Silver expert David Morgan is warning of coming financial changes that may be forced on the U.S. during the next G20 meeting. Morgan says, “The impetus here is the U.S. has had too much financial power backed by the military for far too long, and they (G20) are going to implement change one way or the other.
But Morgan has absolutely no evidence to back up this claim. How are the G20 going to be able to force economic changes upon the US or other member countries? In the 2012 letter to all G20 participants from the Financial Stability Board (FSB), there is clearly no implied force in the recommendations: Ultimately, implementation is the responsibility of your jurisdictions.
Here’s what the globalist Financial Stability Board is suggesting:
1) Ending Too-Big-To Fail (which may involve some shared pain by depositors, as in Cyprus).
2) Strengthening oversight and regulation of shadow banking (good luck shutting down secret banking).
3) Increased regulation of the derivatives markets (very important but difficult to get the big banks to even put up a fraction of the $500T they contract for in derivative contracts). That much money doesn’t even existing in current markets.
4) Increasing the capacity, resources and power of the FSB (more power to the international financial regulator scheme—a predecessor to a Global Government).
Realistically, all other nations have as many problems curtailing deficit spending and speculation as does the US, so this reform can’t be targeting only the US dollar. There simply isn’t the political will to do any of these reforms democratically, so this threat is bogus. However, these kinds of quasi-international reforms are a warm-up exercise for full globalism when it arrives.
The IMF is basically an extension of the United States. Even though it’s called the International Monetary Fund, it is really U.S. based. With what’s been proposed here, the IMF is not going to have the clout that it once did because the G-20 is going to be able to overrule the IMF vote… 19 out of the G20 are saying we are mad as hell and we are not going to take anymore. You get it together or we are going to get it together for you. [There’s absolutely no backing for that statement. Not a single country I know of is saying this because they are ALL in worse shape than the US, except for Switz.].
Even if it had the power to control the IMF, the IMF doesn’t ever vote on anything targeting the US. Rather, it is marching to a globalist agenda to control other countries via loans. Why should that change? The G20, the pro-communist BRICS countries are all in favor of giving more money to other countries.
Morgan goes on to say, “For years and years, decades, the United States has exported their inflation because it’s a reserve currency, and we have the ability to just print at will. [Not really. There are internal restraints on the FED to keep inflation within certain limits.] We have pushed the U.S. dollar overseas, into Japan, into China, into Europe, all over the world, and now these dollars could be repatriated. . . .
The reason we haven’t seen inflation is those dollars have not been spent. [Half right. Perhaps only 50% of the cash is being held out of circulation in mattresses or hiding places. The rest is being circulated.] This would portend ‘I need to get out of the dollar and buy tangible assets.’ [The fact that those dollars are “not being spent” as he claims is absolutely no justification for concluding, “I need to get out of the dollar.” People are hoarding dollars because their own currencies are unstable. The drive to get rid of dollars could only happen if the dollar was being inflated a lot faster than other currencies relative to its base which is currently not the case].
This would be an impetus for these countries that don’t need dollars anymore. [There are very few in this category. China is the main one because they have too many dollars, not because they don’t need some dollars] If I don’t need these dollars and I don’t settle oil in dollars, it’s not the supreme currency. [Yes, but those who have taken themselves out of the dollar markets constitute less than 15% of the international economy—not that big. The US alone is half the dollar economy and that’s not going to go away.]
‘I need to get out of it.’ If that mindset takes hold widespread, [Well, give me a rational reason for how all other countries that want dollars now would suddenly want to get rid of them?] you could see the dollar dive in value against other currencies… If that were to take place, you could see a huge change virtually overnight.”
IF, IF, IF… give me some substance. Only the FED pulling back the money supply in a major way or hyperinflation could do this and we see no sign of either. Morgan thinks the world knows the dollar is in trouble. He contends, “Everyone wants to pretend that everything is OK, but [once] people say I’m out, the dollar is toast. Once that mindset takes place, it could catch fire.. It’s unlikely, but you cannot rule it out [that’s a big change of wording from the previous paragraph where he was claiming it was imminent].. . Something is going to take place this year that will have such an impact. [What, pray tell? Be specific—even a guess would help us judge how you are thinking.]
On silver, Morgan says, “The rush into gold is basically nation states, true, but the rush into silver is basically ‘the people,’ [Not at all, it’s industry much more than people.]… Gold has always been nation state to nation state settlement. . . . What will happen in my view, and this happened in late 1979 and 1980, is that people will catch on quickly. They will see what’s happening in gold and they will say ‘I can’t afford gold at $2,500 an ounce or $3,000,’ and they’ll say ‘I’m going to buy silver.’ [Nothing new here. It’s been that way ever since gold went over $500, and it hasn’t appreciably changed the gold silver price ratio].
There will be a rush into gold and then silver like you have never seen before… You will either have it or you don’t.” What are Morgan’s price targets? Morgan says, “I am on the record that silver will hit $100 an ounce, and that may be conservative [It should go that high, but it won’t while the money powers are still manipulating the silver markets]. I don’t think we need to focus on the paper price but the value of silver relative to the market.
You do need to focus on the paper markets, since that is where the manipulation of the market is happening. No predictions about the upside potential for gold and silver have any validity unless he addresses the downward suppression of Gold and Silver by paper futures contracts that rarely demand delivery. He’s right about fundamental pressures to go up, but please tell us how anyone can predict when the money powers are going to stop manipulating the price through paper contracts. Without that key, his prediction means nothing. I fully expect the pressure on silver and gold to keep going in the upward direction, but the financial powers have still got a lot of monetary muscle to keep it from rising to the level it should.
Another financial author, James Rickards (Currency Wars) has come out with another book expanding on the same theme. It’s called “The Death of Money” and he too is shouting “collapse, collapse, collapse.” It’s too bad the book is marred by this hype about collapse. The book actually has some excellent analysis of the global economy, but he draws the wrong conclusions from true facts, as I will explain shortly.
James Rickards says that the “international monetary system is headed for a collapse…. The international monetary system actually has collapsed three times in the past 100 years. It collapsed in 1914. It collapsed in 1939, and it collapsed in 1971.”
He’s obviously overusing the word collapse. None of those three examples was a true collapse and his dates don’t really correspond to the big financial problems of the era, which do include some limited collapses.
His first two collapse dates (1914 and 1939) were war years and war did destabilize the financial world, but it didn’t cause a collapse. Besides, the entire world system was in a financial funk all during 1929-1940 due to the US stock market crash (caused by the FED), and the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany (where there was a true collapse of the German Mark) but it wasn’t an international collapse. Collapse is far too excessive of a word for what Rickards is describing and I object to it strongly.
In addition, there was no collapse in 1971—simply anger over the US reneging on its promise to redeem dollars in gold. The other nations with large dollar reserves did NOT dump dollars, any more than the Chinese are dumping US bonds today—lest the price drop dramatically before they can unload their stash. They are selling slowly, and the dollar still retains a great deal of value relative to other currencies because all nations have inflated currencies, and the choice between them is only relative—especially now that the absolute value of gold and silver has been somewhat disconnected from the markets through downward manipulation.
In point of fact, economies NEVER collapse to zero because people simply move into survival mode. They never completely give up and stop trying, except during the ravages of war when people get driven out of their homes and businesses. Government money in a few countries has collapsed from hyperinflation, but even that takes a special set of circumstances that is hard to come by in modern Western economies, as I have previously explained in the WAB.
Rickards contends, “What I do for the reader is explain why the collapse is coming and, secondly, describe what this new system might look like. That should be very helpful to investors in preparing to both survive the collapse and be well positioned in terms of wealth preservation under the new system that’s coming.”
In his suggested fix, he talks about IMF special drawing rights with partial gold backing and redeemability in combination with a mix of fiat currencies. That’s not a good fix. Any formula which gives fiat currencies any place at the table with gold redeemable options will ensure that governments will take advantage of the money creation option and avoid gold payouts like the plague.
Rickards, in my opinion, has way too much confidence in government’s willingness to abide by the limits he suggests. He clearly lacks an understanding of corrosive effects of socialism which dominate every nation on earth and which drive political promises.
Neither will they do the right thing based upon sound economics or the “common good.” For this reason, he does recognize that his system of reform won’t satisfy the Austrian School (the true free market theory) of economic thinkers like Mises and Hayek:
Austrian School supporters of a traditional gold standard [100% backing with redeemability in a fixed amount of gold per bill] are unlikely to endorse this new [his] gold standard because it has fractional, even variable gold backing [and allows a mix of fiat currencies to be intermingled with gold backing]. The conspiracy-minded are also unlikely to support it because it is global and has the feel of a New World Order.
That distrust is merited, due to the conspiratorial nature and evil conduct of the globalists who promote the New World Order.
Even the milder critics will point out that this system depends completely on promises by governments, and such promises have consistently been broken in the past. Yet it has the virtue of practicality; it could actually get done.
If it was accepted it would be because those who would agree to it would see that it still contains the allowance for fiat expansion of the money supply without the constraints of 100% commodity backing. But, just because it “works” doesn’t mean it is honest or fair to all.
The reason the gold redeemability standard of the Bretton Woods agreement didn’t hold is that it didn’t really prohibit the FED from printing more currency than the redeemability of the gold clause could supply. It simply relied on the US promise to redeem at a fixed price, with the implied threat of default that would follow any indiscriminate money creation without a concomitant increase in the gold supply. The rest of the world failed to figure on US perfidy and the inevitable future default on their gold obligations which came in 1971.
The promise of gold redeemability is the real thing that promoted the dollar as a reserve currency, not some ethereal or general promise of gold backing by a central bank. Gold backing without redeemability is like loaning money to someone with a collateral guarantee but no provision for foreclosure upon default.
Interestingly enough, the US has only lost about 20% of its international reserve value since reneging on the gold contract in 1971 And that is because no other currency was offering redeemability in gold either. Relative to our current situation Rickards says,
Here we are, again, looking at another collapse… A paper money standard can work, but only if you maintain confidence in the money . . . and you do that by running a good economy and having a good business environment . . . we’re doing the opposite. We are printing a lot of money [so is everyone else]. We have a lousy business environment [so has everyone else]. Taxes are too high [ditto]. Growth is too low [ditto]. So, a lot of things are combining to undermine confidence in the dollar.
In his latest book, he documents similar problems with Russia, China, Brazil, India, Britain, and the EU, so why can’t he see that all these problems don’t point to a dollar collapse, but rather a downward spiral of all economies? Rickards goes on to say,
The last time the system collapsed in 2008, the Fed rescued it. [It didn’t collapse—only the mortgage-backed securities market collapsed and the housing market which dropped about 30%.] How did they do that? Well, we know the Fed printed over $3.5 trillion in new money in the last 5 years. The Fed’s balance sheet went from $800 billion to over $4 trillion [but that inflation of the money supply was less than 2% of US dollars outstanding—hardly hyperinflation].
He missed the biggest thing the FED did to bail out the economy—they bailed out AIG, the largest holder of derivative contracts (guaranteeing those mortgage-backed securities). This alone kept the derivatives bubble from collapsing, which would have taken down not only AIG but Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. Here’s Rickard’s final warning:
When the next collapse comes, it is going to be bigger than the last one. It’s going to be exponentially bigger. The five biggest banks that were too big to fail in 2008, today they are bigger. They own a larger percentage of the total banking assets [including the FED itself, secretly]… the last crisis was barely enough for the Fed to contain. They have used up all their dry powder. They can’t take the balance sheet any higher. The Fed is insolvent… What are they going to do, take their balance sheet to $8 trillion and leverage 200 to 1? The game is up.
No, the game isn’t up and they haven’t used up all their powder. They can and show every sign of keeping real inflation below the 10% level, and if they do that it won’t turn into a hyperinflation scenario that he and others are touting:
Imagine gas at $20 a gallon and bread at $10. That’s what we’re talking about… When a collapse happens, it will happen quickly. You won’t see it coming. There won’t be time to run out and buy gold, and it probably will not even be available at that stage. You need to prepare now.”
–Not true at all. Inflation starts out slowly and then picks up speed. But before it becomes a rush, something very specific has to happen between government and consumers—income and salary raises have to become automatic and backed by government money.
Without these injection mechanisms from government you only get stagflation, not hyperinflation. If prices rose 50% suddenly as he claims, it would instantly stall the economy. As long as people don’t have a way to increase their income to match that level of inflation, they simply stop buying and the economy stops raising prices due to lack of demand. The only way hyperinflation can take hold is for government and business to start indexing people’s salaries to inflation so they can keep pace. Without it, there’s only stagflation.
In summary, Rickards is absolutely right that US debt is unsustainable and that it won’t ever be solved. But he is wrong about collapse being the only option. He fails to see they can prolong the time to a default for several more years until other events help them avoid the blame:
1) The US and the FED are NOT out of options and if they keep doing what they are doing (keeping inflation below 10%, manipulating the official inflation rate even lower, and artificially suppressing interest rates and the price of gold) they can prolong the inevitable default on US debt for a decade or more. They show every sign of doing just that, which he fails to recognize.
2) Rickards lists all the dire things that can bring down the dollar but he misses the biggest one of all. He fails to see the world war the globalists are preparing to bring down upon the world by inducing a nuclear strike on the US from Russia and China. This gives them not only an excuse to drive the West into a militarized global government and new world financial system, but helps them evade the blame for the inevitable debt collapse.
He writes as if the only threats are economic and I see that as his greatest failing, despite his otherwise erudite analysis—and he’s not alone. Most other “smart people” fail to see the world war that’s looming. But, with both Russia and China beginning to show their aggressive tendencies, you have to be willfully blind not to see this new threat emerging.