“China, according to the Pentagon report, will likely build several indigenous aircraft carriers, now, over the next 15 years. These kinds of estimates are what make me believe this major world war is still 8-10 years away. They won’t necessarily have to wait the full 15 years before they’ve got a full blue water navy, but they certainly got to get a lot more than what they have now.”
– Joel Skousen
Transcribed by Jeff Fenske
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Audio
(China discussed at minute-36):
Dr. Stanley Monteith’s Radio Liberty Audio Archives
| Date: 05-09-13 |
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| 4:00: Joel Skousen – World Affairs Brief |
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| 8:00: Steve Day – Help for Chronic Diseasewww.homeforhealth.net |
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| 9:00: Dr. True Ott – Weather Modification |
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World Affairs Brief, May 10, 2013 Commentary and Insights on a Troubled World. Copyright Joel Skousen. Partial quotations with attribution permitted. Cite source as Joel Skousen’s World Affairs Brief (http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com)
This Week’s Analysis:
Israeli Attack on Syria Not About Lebanon
CIA’s Benghazi Secrets
China Aggressiveness Continues in the Face of US Concessions
Armed March on DC an Unwise Provocation
Nothing is Private with Government
Kickstarting Part II of Key Liberty Film
[…]
CHINA AGGRESSIVENESS CONTINUES IN THE FACE OF US CONCESSIONS
China always gives the impression that it is a broker for peace in North Korea. Bill Gertz, America’s foremost China watcher wrote this week:
The clearest example of Chinese influence on Pyongyang was the latest report by U.S. intelligence agencies, indicating that two road-mobile Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missiles that had been readied for test launch on North Korea’s east coast were removed recently.
But at what price in concessions?
[US Sec. Of State] Mr. Kerry brought a carrot that Beijing apparently found hard to resist. He offered to cancel the planned deployment of 14 additional ground-based interceptors at U.S. missile defense bases in Alaska and California if China did more to stifle North Korean bellicosity. The deployments were announced recently in response to North Korean missile threats.
The deployment of such extra Anti-ballistic missiles (somewhat ineffective without any warheads) always makes Americans think they are protected. But the US doesn’t really intend to defend America against a massive nuclear strike. The various ABM systems the US has deployed are probably capable of interdicting a few missiles, but not the volley of thousands China and Russia are preparing for some future time.
Mr. Kerry’s accommodation of China in standing down the extra ABM deployment, is par for the course in US-NK relationships—always backing down from the toughest sanctions any time NK offers even the most minuscule retreat. Compare that to the US treatment of Iran where the US will eventually attack a much less aggressive nation with no proven nuclear weapons capacity.
Meanwhile, China continues developing its military and projecting power in the China Sea. James Dunnigan reports that,
More and more Filipino fishermen are complaining to the government that they are being chased away from their traditional fishing areas off the Filipino coast by Chinese coast guard ships. This is particularly bad at Scarborough Shoal. This is in violation of a deal made last June with the Chinese. Not only did Chinese patrol boats soon return to Scarborough Shoal but Chinese fishing boats are again operating there and even erected a flimsy barrier (with rowboats, rope, and fishing nets) across the entrance to the lagoon and forcibly preventing Filipino fishing boats from entering. Scarborough Shoal is in waters the Philippines claim (according to international law).
The shoal is only 250 kilometers from the Philippines and 1,200 kilometers from China. Despite this, China claims ownership of Scarborough Shoal but has not yet used deadly force to assert that claim. What China is apparently doing is sending patrol boats from their fishery protection service to “protect their fishermen.” According to China they are in compliance with the June deal, as they never agreed that Chinese fishing boats could not operate around Scarborough Shoal. The Philippines does not agree but has refrained from sending warships to the shoal and chasing the Chinese fishing boats away. To Filipinos this is another example of China saying one thing and doing another.
This is typical of how China muscles in on weaker nations. The US is currently pressuring the Philippines not to engage Chinese patrol boats, but this permissiveness will only embolden China until someday even US force won’t be enough to defend Philippine claims without it leading to war.
Meanwhile, China continues its military buildup on all fronts—army, naval and air forces—in anticipation of the inevitable (to them) confrontation with the West. This year’s annual Pentagon report to Congress on Chinese military modernization for 2013 has many more details than last year. It doesn’t tell all, but the growth and sophistication of China’s military modernization is ominous.
Naturally, China is using a variety of espionage techniques to accelerate its acquisition of US military technology:
a) industrial espionage (front companies that order military grade parts from around the world),
b) educational (the US foolishly allows thousands of Chinese students to study at major technical universities) and
c) economic espionage (requiring companies who build parts in China to share their technology). –all this hoping to cut its reliance on foreign arms makers, even Russian arms, which provided China its first high tech weapons.
Bill Gertz of the Washington Free Beacon summarizes much of the report:
China is building two new classes of missile submarines in addition to the eight nuclear missile submarines and six attack submarines being deployed as part of an arms buildup that analysts say appears to put Beijing on a war footing… China has yet to conduct an underwater test firing of its submarine-launched missiles but is deploying new missile submarines and planning advanced versions.
The Pentagon’s latest annual report to Congress also includes new details of China’s deployment of an aircraft carrier-killing ballistic missile, two new stealth jet fighters, and a new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile in addition to three other new ICBMs.
The Chinese military is also developing cyber warfare capabilities that can be used in preemptive attacks, the 92-page report states. Of particular concern to the Pentagon is the deployment near Taiwan of a precision-guided DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, according to the report.
“We’re concerned about the ability of China to develop missiles that can project its military power with precision at great distances from China—obviously something that can hold at risk large surface ships, including aircraft carriers, is something that we pay attention to, but we put it in the context of a number of China’s military developments, again, that we characterize as anti-access and area denial,” However, [the Pentagon report] noted that no single weapons system is the problem. Instead, he said, “it’s the integration and overlapping nature of these weapons system into a regime that can potentially impede or restrict free military operations in the Western Pacific.”
Additionally, the report confirms, China is building a new road-mobile ICBM that is likely capable of being armed with a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)… New road mobile missiles deployed in recent years include DF-31 and DF-31A mobile ICBMs and the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile. The DF-31A has a range of about 7,000 miles.
“This administration is reluctant to just come out and say it [covering for the Chinese threat], but this report makes clear that China is preparing for small-scale and then large-scale wars against the United States and its friends and allies,” said Richard Fisher, a China military analyst with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
Beijing is also rapidly building new radar-evading stealth fighter-bombers known as the J-20 and J-31… the Pentagon does not expect either the J-20 or the J-31 “to achieve an effective operational capability before 2018.” The first test flight of the J-20 took place two years ago and surprised the U.S. military. It was tested during the visit of then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who was criticized for canceling F-22 production.
The full report can be read here: http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_China_Report_FINAL.pdf
The US has been systematically disarming or limiting arms capable of combating a traditional two ocean world war threat, while wasting most of our military resources on Middle East intervention. The US will regret the limiting of the F-22 now that the F-35 replacement has been shown to be way too costly and filled with technical problems.
China’s surface naval forces are also expanding rapidly with deployment of several new types of warships, including the first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning… the carrier conducted its first aircraft launch and recovery operations in November with J-15 fighters… [and] will spend the next three to four years on training and integration before achieving an operationally effective aircraft carrier capability… China will likely build several indigenous aircraft carriers over the next 15 years.
These kinds of estimates are what make me believe this major world war is still 8-10 years away.
The report also discusses China’s assertions of territorial and maritime claims that are upsetting stability in the region… China is claiming most of the South China Sea as its territory and is disputing Japan’s claims to the Senkaku Islands. Both areas are said to have large deposits of undersea gas and oil to which energy-hungry states in the region seek access.
China’s government routinely protests the annual report, claiming it is part of a Pentagon campaign to hype the threat from China.
Fisher, the IASC military analyst, said the latest report is far more useful than the truncated 43-page report from 2012. “The first ever report disclosure of development of the Type 096 SSBN raises the prospect of a new submarine launched missile that also may be multiple warhead capable,” Fisher said. “As the Administration presses for additional reductions in U.S. nuclear warhead levels and shows reluctance to fund U.S. nuclear arsenal modernization, it is doubly important that Congress be informed about the size and growth of China’s nuclear forces.”
Fisher said the report failed to address China’s transfer of strategic missile technology to North Korea, specifically the transporter-erector launchers for Pyongyang’s new KN-08 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile disclosed for the first time during a military parade in April 2012.
“A failure to chastise and sanction China’s action will only serve to undermine confidence in American security guarantees and increase interest by our allies in their own nuclear deterrents,” he said.
All of the last comments reinforce my view that the US is intentionally downplaying the China threat. Incredibly, the chief of naval operations told Congress on Tuesday that he is vigilant of, but not worried by, China’s large-scale naval buildup, including the Pentagon’s disclosure on Monday that Beijing is building two new classes of missile submarines. That’s what happens when you purge out all the Pattons and MacArthurs from the military and advance only yes-men.
It must be also noted that the Pentagon doesn’t even put out a similar threat paper on Russian nuclear forces which are well ahead in numbers and quantity than the Chinese. That is a crucial omission, and has been going on for decades.
What is gained by downplaying the threat of Russia and China? It keeps the American public ignorant of the real threats. By not alerting us to the future danger it makes sure Americans don’t demand a change in our military strategy and posture, or prepare themselves for the war the government knows is coming. That’s the reason our government is building deep underground bunker systems. We need to start focusing on the real global threats, not simply the Muslim threat—which is largely manufactured and exacerbated by the phony war on terror. This is no harmless diversion. It is a deadly time to be asleep and passive.
